San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction, 8/16/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Guardians

Date: Sunday, August 16, 2026

Location: Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH

TV: MLB.TV

Odds/Point Spread: San Diego (-128) Cleveland (+106)

The Cleveland Guardians (59-63) will try to beat the San Diego Padres (65-57) at Progressive Field on Sunday. The odds on this game have the Padres at -128 and the Guardians are at +106. The total comes in at 9. The pitchers taking the mound are Casey Mize and Tanner Bibee.

The Padres have accumulated 180 two-baggers as a team and have hit 134 baseballs out of the park. San Diego owns a slugging percentage of .388 and have been called out on strikes 987 times, while taking a walk on 414 occasions. As a unit, the San Diego Padres are notching 4.3 runs per game, which has them sitting at 21st in MLB. They have amassed 504 runs batted in and 956 hits so far this year, while their team batting average is .238. They have notched a total of 522 runs scored and have an OBP of .314.

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The Padres are sitting with a team ERA of 4.10 over the course of the season (15th in the league), and they have struck out 992 hitters. Padres pitchers have surrendered 135 home runs and 521 total runs (10th in the league). They have walked 426 opposing batters and their FIP is 4.19 as a squad over the course of the season. San Diego has conceded 993 base hits (8.3 per 9 innings) and 491 earned runs. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 2.33 and the pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.32.

The Padres have dispatched 413 relievers to the hill on the year. The relief pitchers have inherited 199 runners so far this season and 32.2% of those runners crossing the plate. The relievers have 74 holds on the campaign (9th in MLB). Padres pitchers have gone to the mound with players on base 118 times in addition to having 138 appearances in high leverage situations. They have recorded 36 saves for the year and have blown 15 out of their 51 chances to get a save. The Padres relievers have a save percentage of 70.6% and have come into the game in 128 save situations.

The San Diego Padres have amassed 3,237 putouts so far this season, in addition to 1,074 assists and 49 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding steady at .989 which is 3rd in baseball, and they have turned 100 double plays. The Padres have turned 70.2% of balls hit into play into outs out of 9,711 innings on the diamond, ranking them 13th in MLB.

Mize (23-26 career win-loss mark) is the owner of a FIP of 4.24 while he has faced 1,915 hitters in the majors. He has allowed 460 base knocks (9.2 hits per 9 innings) and has had 126 free passes. His ERA is 4.31 (215 earned runs allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.305. Mize has taken the ball for 449 innings and has 372 strikeouts so far in his career.

The Cleveland Guardians have tallied an on-base percentage of .313 and a batting average of .232 for the season. They have been called out on strikes on 1,000 occasions (17th in baseball) and have tallied 940 hits. Cleveland has 117 home runs for the year and 463 runs batted in. The Guardians have a team slugging percentage of .368 and they earn 3.96 runs per outing (28th in baseball). They have 178 doubles, while walking 448 times and racking up 483 runs.

The Cleveland pitching staff have surrendered 513 runs on the season and come in with a team ERA of 3.84 (460 earned runs yielded). They have relinquished 139 long balls and they relinquish 4.28 runs per 9 innings (9th in MLB). The Guardians hold a team WHIP of 1.272 and have a FIP of 3.90 as a squad for the season. Their K/BB ratio sits at 9.40 (1,131 strikeouts against 401 bases on balls). They have a ranking of 12th in MLB as a staff in total hits allowed with 972.

Cleveland bullpen pitchers hold an inherited score percentage of 27.9% out of their 197 inherited runners. Their relievers have stepped onto the mound 142 times in high leverage situations and also on 126 occasions with runners on. Sitting with 142 save situations, the Guardians have amassed 91 holds and 14 blown saves. They sit at 6th in baseball with a save rate of 71.4%, and they have sent 416 relief pitchers to the hill over the course of the season.

Out of their 9,717 innings played, the Guardians have earned a efficiency on defense of 69.3% (25th in the majors). The Cleveland Guardians have turned 79 double plays and hold a fielding percentage of .984 (20th in the majors). The Guardians have accrued 950 assists, 68 errors and have accumulated 3,239 putouts for the year.

Bibee (38-35 career mark) has a 3.70 ERA and has conceded 7.9 hits per 9 innings. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.30 and he has gone up against 2,643 batters in his career. He has given up a total of 264 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.165 and a FIP of 3.6. In his MLB career, Bibee has surrendered 565 base knocks and he has 604 K's in 642 innings pitched.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Cleveland (+106)

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