San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Prediction, 7/24/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins

Date: Friday, July 24, 2026

Location: LoanDepot Park in Miami, FL

TV: MLB.TV

Odds/Point Spread: San Diego (-196) Miami (+162)

The San Diego Padres (50-52) are en route to LoanDepot Park on Friday where they will play the Miami Marlins (52-51). The moneyline on this contest has the Padres at -196 and the Marlins are priced at +162. The over/under comes in at 9. The pitchers taking the mound are German Marquez and Ryan Gusto.

San Diego is slugging .383 and have been called out on strikes 845 times, while taking a walk on 349 occasions. They have recorded 410 RBI's as well as 770 base knocks so far this season, while their batting average is at .230. The Padres have tallied 152 doubles as a unit and have hit 114 balls out of the stadium. They have tallied 421 runs and have an OBP of .307. As a squad, the San Diego Padres are knocking in 4.1 runs per contest, which puts them at 25th in the league.

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They have accumulated a K/BB ratio of 2.26 and their pitching staff has a team WHIP of 1.34. Padres pitchers have given up 112 home runs in addition to 450 total runs (13th in MLB). San Diego has allowed 843 base hits (8.4 per 9 innings) and 424 earned runs. The Padres have compiled a team ERA of 4.24 so far this season (17th in the league), and the staff has struck out 829 batters. They have walked 367 opposing hitters and their FIP is 4.24 as a team on the year.

The Padres have dispatched 345 relievers to the hill for the year. The relief pitchers have inherited 173 runners on the campaign with 32.9% of those players crossing home plate. The relievers are sitting with 60 holds for the year (10th in the league). Padres relief pitchers have entered the game with runners on 102 times in addition to having 116 appearances in high leverage situations. They have recorded 29 saves on the year and have blown 13 of their 42 save opportunities. The Padres bullpen have a save percentage of 69.0% and have come into the game in 104 save situations.

The Padres have turned 69.8% of balls hit into play into outs out of 8,100 innings, which has them sitting at 17th in pro baseball. The San Diego Padres have a total of 2,700 putouts over the course of the season, in addition to 888 assists and 39 errors. Their fielding percentage is currently at .989 which is 3rd in baseball, and they have turned 88 double plays.

Marquez has taken the hill for 1,190 innings and has 1,099 punch outs so far in his pro baseball career. Marquez (72-74 career mark) sits with a FIP of 4.63 while he has faced 5,106 batters in the major leagues. His ERA is 4.70 (621 earned runs allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.343. He has given up 1,222 base knocks (9.2 hits per nine innings) with 376 free passes.

Miami has accounted for 104 home runs so far this season and 440 RBIs. They have hit 173 two-baggers, while getting a free base 346 times as well as putting up 457 runs. The Miami Marlins have earned a team on-base percentage of .326 and a team batting average of .251 so far this season. The Marlins have a slugging percentage of .406 and they score 4.44 runs per game (16th in MLB). They have been called out on strikes on 843 instances (19th in baseball) and have recorded 861 base hits.

The Miami pitching staff have allowed 446 runs so far this season and come in with a team ERA of 4.05 (407 earned runs relinquished). They have surrendered 105 homers and they concede 4.44 runs per 9 innings (11th in the league). The Marlins have a WHIP of 1.250 and have a FIP of 4.05 as a squad this year. They have earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 8.60 (868 strikeouts vs 351 walks). They come in at 5th in baseball as a staff in total hits allowed with 779.

Miami relievers hold an inherited score percentage of 20.3% of 128 inherited runners. Their relief pitchers have come in 98 times in high leverage situations and on 88 occasions with runners on base. Sitting with 96 save situations, the Marlins have 58 holds and 13 blown saves. They sit at 15th in the league with a save rate of 63.9%, and they have sent 328 bullpen pitchers onto the diamond for the season.

Out of their 8,136 innings on the diamond, the Marlins have earned a efficiency on defense of 70.7% (9th in MLB). The Miami Marlins have gotten 75 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .982 (26th in the majors). The Marlins have recorded 844 assists, 66 errors and have accounted for 2,712 putouts on the season.

Thus far in his career, Gusto has given up 146 hits while accumulating 124 K's in 131 innings pitched. He has given up a total of 80 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.461 and a FIP of 5.4. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.70 and he has gone up against 591 hitters so far in his career. Gusto (7-9 career mark) has earned a 5.48 ERA and has conceded 10.0 hits per nine innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Miami (+162)

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