San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction, 10/3/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers

Date: Saturday, October 3, 2026

Location: American Family Field in Milwaukee, WI

TV: FS1

Odds/Point Spread: San Diego (+178) Milwaukee (-218)

The Milwaukee Brewers (103-59) will take on the San Diego Padres (91-71) at American Family Field on Saturday in Game 1 of the NLDS. The line on this contest has San Diego at +178 while Milwaukee opens at -218. The over/under is set at 7. The starting pitchers are Robbie Ray and Jacob Misiorowski.

As a squad, the San Diego Padres are putting up 4.5 runs/g, which ranks them 16th in MLB. They have earned a total of 722 runs scored and have an OBP of .319. The Padres have accumulated 234 two-baggers as a team and have knocked 183 balls out of the park. They have amassed 696 runs batted in and 1,314 base knocks so far this season, and their average at the plate comes in at .244. San Diego has a slugging rate of .398 and have been called out on strikes 1,310 times, while being walked on 554 occasions.

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Their K/BB ratio is 2.37 and their pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.29. Padres pitchers have yielded 180 home runs in addition to 681 runs (9th in the league). San Diego has conceded 1,304 base hits (8.2 per 9 innings) and also 636 earned runs. The Padres hold a team earned run average of 3.99 for the season (10th in baseball), and the staff has struck out 1,315 hitters. They have walked 554 opposing batters and their FIP is 4.20 as a team on the year.

The Padres bullpen have recorded a save rate of 70.6% and have stepped onto the mound in 179 save situations. They have compiled 48 saves this year and have blown 20 of their 68 save opportunities. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 248 base runners this season with 31.0% of those players crossing the plate. Padres bullpen pitchers have stepped onto the hill with opponents on base 153 times as well as having 185 appearances in high leverage situations. The Padres have dispatched 550 relievers to the mound on the year. The bullpen have 106 holds for the season (5th in MLB).

The San Diego Padres have a tally of 4,309 putouts at this point in the season, as well as 1,431 assists and 64 errors. Their fielding percentage sits at .989 which ranks 2nd in baseball, and have a total of 131 double plays. The Padres have transformed 70.6% of balls in play into outs in their 12,927 innings, ranking them 11th in professional baseball.

Ray has taken the hill for 1,484 innings and is sitting with 1,767 punch outs during his MLB career. Ray (91-83 career win-loss record) has earned a FIP of 3.91 while he has faced 6,287 opposing hitters in the majors. His ERA is 3.97 (655 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.296. He has given up 1,289 base hits (7.8 hits per nine innings) with 635 free passes.

The Brewers hold a slugging % of .403 and they score 5.14 runs per game (2nd in MLB). They have recorded 279 two-baggers, while taking a walk 668 times and putting up 832 runs. Milwaukee has knocked in 154 HRs so far this year as well as 788 runs batted in. They have been rung up on 1,383 occasions (11th in baseball) and have totaled 1,422 base hits. The Milwaukee Brewers have a team on-base percentage of .341 as well as a team batting average of .258 on the season.

The Brewers are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.178 and have a FIP of 3.72 as a staff for the season. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 9.60 (1,544 strikeouts against 518 walks). They rank 2nd in baseball as a pitching staff in total hits conceded with 1,186. They have relinquished 171 HR's and they give up 3.85 runs per 9 innings (4th in baseball). The Milwaukee pitching staff have given up 618 runs so far this season while holding a team ERA of 3.52 (565 earned runs yielded).

They are currently ranked 5th in baseball holding a save percentage of 72.4%, and they have dispatched 509 relievers to the hill this year. Their relief pitchers have stepped onto the hill 158 times in high leverage situations in addition to 129 occasions with runners on. With 164 save situations, the Brewers have accrued 86 holds and also 21 blown saves. Milwaukee has called on bullpen pitchers to enter the contest in 76 save chances and they have recorded 55 saves. Milwaukee relief pitchers have an inherited score percentage of 37.4% out of 187 inherited base runners.

The Milwaukee Brewers have gotten 118 double plays and have earned a fielding percentage of .987 (7th in the majors). The Brewers have racked up 1,269 assists, 72 errors and have accounted for 4,340 putouts for the season. In 13,020 innings on the diamond, the Brewers have earned a defensive efficiency of 71.2% (6th in pro baseball).

In his career, Misiorowski has allowed 147 base knocks while totaling 339 punch outs in 240 frames. Misiorowski (21-8 career record) has earned a 2.51 ERA and has surrendered 5.5 hits per 9 innings. He has conceded 67 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 0.924 and having a FIP of 2.5. He has a K/BB ratio of 4.52 and he has faced 938 opposing batters during his career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Parlay's Pundit's Pick: Take Milwaukee (-218) and under 7 runs

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