San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction, 10/4/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers

Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026

Location: American Family Field in Milwaukee, WI

TV: FS1

Odds/Point Spread: San Diego (+135) Milwaukee (-164)

American Family Field is where the Milwaukee Brewers (103-59) will try to beat the San Diego Padres (91-71) on Sunday in Game 2 of the NLDS. The moneyline on this contest has San Diego at +135 and Milwaukee is sitting at -164. The total is 7. The pitchers taking the mound will be Michael King and Logan Henderson.

The Padres have compiled 234 doubles as a team and have knocked 183 baseballs out of the park. San Diego has a slugging rate of .398 and have been called out on strikes 1,310 times, while being walked on 554 occasions. As a unit, the San Diego Padres are notching 4.5 runs per outing, which is 16th in MLB. They have 696 runs batted in in addition to 1,314 base knocks on the campaign, while their team batting average is .244. They have racked up 722 runs while holding a team OBP of .319.

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The Padres have compiled a team earned run average of 3.99 over the course of the season (10th in the league), and the staff has rung up 1,315 batters. Padres pitchers have given up 180 home runs and 681 runs in total (9th in baseball). They have walked 554 players from the other team and their FIP is 4.20 as a team so far this season. San Diego has conceded 1,304 hits (8.2 per 9 innings) in addition to 636 earned runs. They have a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.37 and their pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.29.

The Padres relief pitchers have recorded a save rate of 70.6% and stepped onto the hill in 179 save situations. They have accumulated 48 saves on the season and have missed out on 20 of 68 chances to save the game. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 248 runners so far this season and 31.0% of them ended up crossing the plate. Padres relief pitchers have entered the contest with players on base 153 times in addition to having 185 appearances in high leverage situations. The Padres have dispatched 550 relief pitchers to the hill on the year. The bullpen have a total of 106 holds this season (5th in the league).

The San Diego Padres are sitting with 4,309 putouts at this point in the season, as well as 1,431 assists and 64 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding steady at .989 which has them ranked 2nd in the majors, and they have turned 131 double plays. The Padres have converted 70.6% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 12,927 innings, ranking them 11th in MLB.

King has taken the hill for 679 innings and is sitting with 718 strikeouts so far in his pro baseball career. His ERA is 3.23 (244 ER's allowed) and his WHIP is 1.190. He has surrendered 566 base hits (7.5 hits per nine innings) and has 242 walks. King (43-39 career win-loss mark) holds a FIP of 3.18 and he has gone up against 2,826 batters during his time in the major leagues.

The Milwaukee Brewers have tallied an OBP of .341 as well as a team batting average of .258 over the course of the season. They have struck out on 1,383 instances (11th in baseball) and have earned 1,422 hits. Milwaukee is sitting with 154 long balls on the year to go along with 788 runs batted in. The Brewers hold a slugging percentage of .403 and they earn 5.14 runs per contest (2nd in baseball). They have recorded 279 doubles, while getting a free base 668 times as well as putting up 832 runs.

The Brewers are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.178 in addition to having a FIP of 3.72 as a squad so far this year. They are sitting at 2nd in baseball as a pitching staff in total hits allowed with 1,186. The Milwaukee pitching staff have conceded 618 runs over the course of the season while having a team ERA of 3.52 (565 earned runs allowed). Their strikeout to walk ratio comes in at 9.60 (1,544 strikeouts vs 518 walks). They have surrendered 171 dingers and they allow 3.85 runs per 9 innings (4th in MLB).

Sitting with 164 save situations, the Brewers have 86 holds in addition to 21 blown saves. Milwaukee has called on bullpen pitchers to take the mound in 76 save opportunities and they have walked away with 55 saves. Milwaukee relievers hold an inherited score rate of 37.4% out of their 187 inherited runners. Their relievers have taken the field 158 times in high leverage situations and also on 129 occasions with runners on. They rank 5th in MLB with a save rate of 72.4%, and they have dispatched 509 bullpen pitchers to the hill on the season.

In their 13,020 innings on the field, the Brewers have earned a defensive efficiency of 71.2% (6th in MLB). The Milwaukee Brewers have gotten 118 double plays and have accounted for a fielding rate of .987 (7th in pro baseball). The Brewers have recorded 1,269 assists, 72 errors and have notched a total of 4,340 putouts this season.

During his career, Henderson has surrendered 81 base hits while he has totaled 143 punch outs in 123 innings pitched. He has conceded a total of 32 ER's while earning a WHIP of 0.877 and having a FIP of 2.3. His strikeout to walk ratio is 5.30 and he has gone up against 470 batters during his pro baseball career. Henderson (14-3 record in his career) holds a 2.34 earned run average and has conceded 5.9 hits per 9 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take San Diego (+135)

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