San Diego Padres vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, 8/28/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: San Diego Padres vs Tampa Bay Rays

Date: Friday, August 28, 2026

Location: Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL

TV: MLB.TV

Odds/Point Spread: San Diego (-128) Tampa Bay (+106)

The San Diego Padres (72-62) are hitting the road to Tropicana Field on Friday where they will take on the Tampa Bay Rays (79-54). The moneyline on this contest has the Padres at -128 while the Rays open at +106. The total comes in at 8.5. The expected starting pitchers will be Casey Mize and Shane McClanahan.

The Padres have hit 196 doubles as a squad and have hit 148 balls out of the stadium. San Diego has a slugging % of .388 and have been rung up 1,084 times, while taking a walk on 466 occasions. As a unit, the San Diego Padres are knocking in 4.3 runs per game, which puts them at 21st in MLB. They have amassed 548 runs batted in and 1,047 hits for the season, and their team batting average is at .238. They have 569 runs scored and hold an on-base percentage of .315.

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They have earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.38 and the pitching staff sits with a WHIP of 1.29. Padres pitchers have surrendered 146 home runs and also 552 total runs (9th in the league). San Diego has given up 1,073 base knocks (8.1 per 9 innings) and 519 earned runs. The Padres have compiled a team ERA of 3.94 this season (10th in the league), and their staff has struck out 1,083 batters. They have walked 455 players from the other team and their FIP is 4.14 as a team so far this year.

The Padres have dispatched 448 relief pitchers to the mound over the course of the season. The relief pitchers have inherited 210 base runners on the season with 31.9% of those runners earned a run for their team. The relief pitchers have a total of 83 holds on the year (8th in baseball). Padres relief pitchers have gone to the mound with runners on 127 times in addition to having 147 appearances in high leverage situations. They have recorded 40 saves so far this season and have not converted 15 of 55 chances to get a save. The Padres relievers have accumulated a save rate of 72.7% and have come into the game in 141 save situations.

The San Diego Padres have accumulated 3,561 putouts so far this season, in addition to 1,188 assists and 55 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding steady at .989 which has them sitting 5th in professional baseball, and they have turned 109 double plays. The Padres have transformed 70.7% of balls in play into outs out of their 10,683 innings on the diamond, which has them ranked 10th in baseball.

Mize has taken the ball for 458 frames and has earned 375 K's so far in his MLB career. His earned run average is 4.30 (219 earned runs allowed) and his WHIP is 1.299. He has conceded 467 hits (9.2 hits per nine innings) with 128 free passes. Mize (24-26 win-loss record in his career) has earned a FIP of 4.24 while he has faced 1,949 hitters during his time in the majors.

The Tampa Bay Rays hold a team on-base percentage of .329 in addition to a team batting average of .260 this season. They have been rung up on 930 occasions (30th in MLB) and have tallied 1,159 base hits. Tampa Bay has accounted for 136 home runs this year as well as 566 runs batted in. The Rays hold a slugging % of .402 and they score 4.47 runs per game (16th in MLB). They have put up 188 doubles, while getting a free base 429 times as well as earning 595 runs.

The Rays are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.148 in addition to having a FIP of 4.05 as a staff over the course of the season. They rank 7th in MLB as a staff in total hits relinquished with 1,031. The Tampa Bay pitching staff have relinquished 548 runs on the season while having a team ERA of 3.78 (498 earned runs conceded). They have earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 8.20 (1,086 strikeouts vs 330 bases on balls). They have allowed 168 homers and they allow 4.16 runs per 9 innings (8th in baseball).

They rank 2nd in baseball with a save rate of 76.8%, and they have sent 420 relievers to the mound so far this season. Their bullpen pitchers have stepped onto the mound 128 times in high leverage situations in addition to 107 occasions with runners on base. With 170 save situations, the Rays have earned 101 holds and also 16 blown saves. Tampa Bay has had bullpen pitchers step onto the hill in 69 save chances and they have come away with 53 saves. Tampa Bay relief pitchers hold an inherited score percentage of 30.1% out of their 153 inherited runners.

In their 10,674 innings on the field, the Rays have earned a efficiency on defense of 71.9% (3rd in baseball). The Tampa Bay Rays have gotten 87 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .983 (23rd in professional baseball). The Rays have recorded 1,048 assists, 79 errors and have accounted for 3,558 putouts this year.

In his pro baseball career, McClanahan has conceded 415 base hits while totaling 555 K's in 511 innings. He has conceded 173 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.109 and a FIP of 3.0. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.65 and he has gone up against 2,070 batters so far in his pro baseball career. McClanahan (42-22 career win-loss mark) has earned a 3.05 earned run average and has allowed 7.3 hits per 9 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Tampa Bay (+106)

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