Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Prediction, 5/11/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros

Date: Monday, May 11, 2026

Location: Daikin Park in Houston, TX

TV: Space City Home Network

Odds/Point Spread: Seattle (-182) Houston (+150)

The Houston Astros (16-24) are welcoming the Seattle Mariners (19-21) at Daikin Park on Monday. The line on this matchup has the Mariners at -182 and the Astros are priced at +150. The over/under is 8. The starting pitchers will be George Kirby and Tatsuya Imai.

As a squad, the Seattle Mariners are notching 4.2 runs per contest, which ranks them 23rd in the league. They are sitting with 166 runs while having a team on-base percentage of .320. The Mariners have accounted for 51 two-baggers as a squad and have knocked 46 baseballs out of the park. They have earned 161 runs batted in and 302 base knocks this year, while their team batting average sits at .230. Seattle is slugging .379 and have been called out on strikes 367 times, while being walked on 155 occasions.

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Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 3.42 and their pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.24. Mariners pitchers have allowed 42 long balls and also 163 runs (7th in the league). Seattle has given up 343 hits (8.7 per 9 innings) and also 151 earned runs. The Mariners have an ERA of 3.81 for the year (8th in the league), and the staff has rung up 335 batters. Their pitching staff has walked 98 opposing players and their FIP is 3.82 as a squad for the year.

The Mariners relievers have earned a save rate of 68.8% and have come into the game in 36 save situations. They have tallied 11 saves over the course of the season and have blown 5 of their 16 save chances. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 41 runners on the year with 12.2% of those players crossing home plate. Mariners bullpen pitchers have stepped onto the hill with runners on 31 times as well as having 49 appearances in high leverage situations. The Mariners have sent 125 relievers to the mound on the year. The relief pitchers have notched 20 holds on the year (21st in MLB).

The Seattle Mariners have amassed 1,069 putouts at this point in the season, as well as 340 assists and 15 errors. Their fielding percentage is currently at .989 which puts them in 6th in pro baseball, and have earned 41 double plays. The Mariners have transformed 68.6% of balls hit into play into outs out of 3,207 innings on the field, which has them sitting at 25th in the majors.

Kirby has taken the mound for 689 innings and has accounted for 660 punch outs thus far in his career. His ERA is 3.54 (271 ER's allowed) and his WHIP is 1.111. He has allowed 661 base hits (8.6 hits per nine innings) and has had 105 walks. Kirby (49-36 record in his career) sits with a FIP of 3.49 and he has faced 2,805 opposing hitters during his time in the major leagues.

The Astros have a slugging percentage of .436 and they are recording 4.90 runs per game (8th in the league). They have notched 77 doubles, while walking 144 times and recording 196 runs. Houston has knocked in 52 home runs so far this season as well as 186 runs batted in. They have struck out on 310 occasions (23rd in baseball) and have earned a total of 356 hits. The Houston Astros hold a team on-base percentage of .337 and a team batting average of .261 for the season.

The Houston pitching staff have surrendered 225 runs on the campaign while holding a team ERA of 5.57 (216 earned runs relinquished). They have conceded 53 homers and they give up 5.80 runs per 9 innings (30th in MLB). The Astros are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.593 with a FIP of 5.03 as a pitching staff for the year. Their K/BB ratio sits at 9.20 (357 strikeouts against 205 walks). They have a ranking of 26th in MLB as a staff in total hits surrendered with 351.

With 22 save situations, the Astros have compiled 13 holds and also 1 blown save. Houston has had bullpen pitchers step onto the mound in 9 save chances and they have walked away with 8 saves. Houston bullpen pitchers hold an inherited score percentage of 28.0% out of 75 inherited runners. Their bullpen pitchers have come in 29 times in high leverage situations and on 44 occasions with runners on base. They rank 1st in MLB holding a save percentage of 88.9%, and they have sent 126 relief pitchers to the mound this year.

In 3,144 innings on the diamond, the Astros have earned a defensive efficiency of 67.5% (28th in pro baseball). The Houston Astros have gotten 38 double plays and have notched a fielding percentage of .989 (7th in baseball). The Astros have accrued 299 assists, 15 errors and are sitting with 1,048 putouts on the season.

In his MLB career, Imai has surrendered 7 base hits while he has totaled 13 K's in 8 innings. Imai (1-0 career mark) is the owner of a 7.68 ERA while giving up 7.7 hits per nine innings. He has given up a total of 7 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 2.195 and being the owner of a FIP of 7.6. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.18 and he has gone up against 44 hitters during his MLB career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Seattle (-182)

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