Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, 7/10/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays

Date: Friday, July 10, 2026

Location: Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL

TV: MLB.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Seattle (-144) Tampa Bay (+120)

The Seattle Mariners (47-46) are hitting the road to Tropicana Field on Friday where they will meet the Tampa Bay Rays (54-36). The moneyline on this contest has Seattle at -144 and Tampa Bay is at +120. The over/under comes in at 8.5. The starting pitchers are Luis Castillo and Nick Martinez.

The Mariners have earned 114 doubles as a team and have hit 110 baseballs out of the park. Seattle has a slugging rate of .379 and have been rung up 808 times, while being walked on 309 occasions. As a squad, the Seattle Mariners are recording 4.1 runs per game, which has them at 27th in the league. They have tallied 364 RBI's in addition to 709 base knocks so far this year, while their team batting average sits at .230. They have earned a total of 377 runs scored and hold an OBP of .311.

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The Mariners are sitting with a team earned run average of 3.54 for the year (4th in the league), and their staff has rung up 802 batters. Mariners pitchers have yielded 83 long balls and also 353 total runs (4th in baseball). Their pitching staff has walked 230 hitters and their FIP comes in at 3.46 as a team on the campaign. Seattle has given up 729 hits (8.0 per 9 innings) as well as 324 earned runs. Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 3.49 and their pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.16.

The Mariners relief pitchers have a save percentage of 59.5% and have entered the game in 91 save situations. They have earned 22 saves on the season and have missed out on 15 of 37 chances to get a save. The relief pitchers have inherited 89 runners this year with 27.0% of those runners ended up crossing the plate. Mariners bullpen pitchers have gone to the mound with players on base 65 times in addition to having 100 appearances in high leverage situations. The Mariners have sent 273 relief pitchers to the hill so far this year. The bullpen have recorded 53 holds so far this season (11th in the league).

The Seattle Mariners have amassed 2,473 putouts so far this season, as well as 756 assists and 46 errors. Their fielding percentage sits at .986 which is 16th in MLB, and have 82 double plays. The Mariners have converted 69.8% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 7,419 innings on the diamond, which has them ranked 15th in the majors.

Castillo (87-91 career win-loss record) holds a FIP of 3.57 while he has faced 6,189 batters in the major leagues. He has given up 1,291 base hits (7.8 hits per 9 innings) and has had 480 free passes. His earned run average is 3.62 (601 earned runs allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.187. Castillo has taken the mound for 1,492 frames and has accounted for 1,570 strikeouts in his pro baseball career.

Tampa Bay has accounted for 87 long balls on the year and 387 RBIs. They have put up 125 doubles, while getting a free base 320 times and racking up 406 runs. The Tampa Bay Rays have earned a team on-base percentage of .334 as well as a team batting average of .257 on the season. The Rays have a team slugging % of .395 and they are recording 4.51 runs per contest (16th in the league). They have been rung up on 644 occasions (30th in MLB) and have earned a total of 771 hits.

The Rays have a WHIP of 1.166 in addition to having a FIP of 4.11 as a pitching staff on the year. They come in at 5th in MLB as a staff in total hits surrendered with 698. The Tampa Bay pitching staff have relinquished 370 runs so far this season and come in with a team ERA of 3.72 (332 earned runs yielded). Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 8.20 (731 strikeouts vs 238 bases on balls). They have conceded 112 home runs and they relinquish 4.15 runs per 9 innings (8th in MLB).

They are ranked 5th in the league with a save rate of 74.0%, and they have dispatched 284 bullpen pitchers to the hill for the season. Their bullpen pitchers have stepped onto the hill 92 times in high leverage situations and on 74 occasions with base runners. Sitting with 120 save situations, the Rays have compiled 70 holds and 13 blown saves. Tampa Bay has called on bullpen pitchers to step onto the mound in 50 save opportunities and they have walked away with 37 saves. Tampa Bay relievers have an inherited score percentage of 24.8% out of 105 inherited runners.

Out of their 7,227 innings played, the Rays have earned a defensive efficiency of 71.9% (2nd in professional baseball). The Tampa Bay Rays have gotten 58 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .983 (22nd in professional baseball). The Rays have racked up 724 assists, 54 errors and have a total of 2,409 putouts this season.

In his pro baseball career, Martinez has conceded 1,030 hits while tallying 731 strikeouts in 1,040 innings pitched. Martinez (55-61 career win-loss record) has a 4.01 ERA and has surrendered 8.9 hits per 9 innings. He has given up a total of 463 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.286 and a FIP of 3.9. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.38 and he has gone up against 4,395 opposing hitters in his pro baseball career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Seattle (-144)

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