Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, 7/11/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays

Date: Saturday, July 11, 2026

Location: Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL

TV: MLB.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Seattle (-196) Tampa Bay (+162)

The Seattle Mariners (47-47) are traveling to Tropicana Field on Saturday where they will try to beat the Tampa Bay Rays (54-37). The odds on this game have Seattle at -196 and Tampa Bay is at +162. The over/under is 8. The pitchers who are expected to start are Logan Gilbert and Griffin Jax.

As a team, the Seattle Mariners are notching 4.1 runs per outing, which has them at 27th in the league. They have racked up 381 runs scored while holding a team OBP of .311. The Mariners have compiled 114 two-baggers as a team and have knocked 112 balls out of the stadium. They have accumulated 367 runs batted in as well as 716 hits so far this year, and their batting average comes in at .230. Seattle has a slugging % of .380 and have been rung up 817 times, while drawing a walk on 315 occasions.

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They have a K/BB ratio of 3.43 and the pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.17. Mariners pitchers have allowed 84 home runs and also 361 total runs (5th in MLB). Seattle has allowed 741 hits (8.0 per 9 innings) and also 330 earned runs. The Mariners have compiled a team earned run average of 3.57 for the year (4th in the league), and their staff has rung up 806 batters. They have walked 235 players from the other team and their FIP is 3.48 as a squad this season.

The Mariners bullpen have a save percentage of 59.5% and have entered the game in 91 save situations. They have compiled 22 saves over the course of the season and have blown 15 out of their 37 save opportunities. The relievers have inherited 89 runners for the year with 27.0% of those players ended up crossing the plate. Mariners pitchers have stepped onto the hill with players on base 65 times in addition to having 100 appearances in high leverage situations. The Mariners have dispatched 275 relief pitchers to the mound on the campaign. The bullpen have notched 53 holds over the course of the season (11th in MLB).

The Seattle Mariners have a total of 2,497 putouts thus far, in addition to 765 assists and 48 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding at .985 which ranks 17th in professional baseball, and have earned 84 double plays. The Mariners have turned 69.6% of balls in play into outs out of 7,491 innings on the diamond, which has them ranked 18th in professional baseball.

Gilbert has taken the mound for 942 innings and is sitting with 998 strikeouts in his MLB career. His ERA is 3.53 (370 ER's allowed) and his WHIP is 1.046. He has surrendered 783 hits (7.5 hits per 9 innings) with 203 walks. Gilbert (54-41 mark in his career) has a FIP of 3.48 while he has faced 3,796 opposing batters in the majors.

The Rays have a team SLG% of .396 and they are recording 4.51 runs per outing (16th in MLB). They have put up 126 two-baggers, while taking a walk 322 times as well as earning 410 runs. Tampa Bay has knocked in 88 home runs on the season to go along with 390 RBIs. They have been rung up on 653 occasions (30th in the league) and have accounted for 781 base knocks. The Tampa Bay Rays have accounted for an OBP of .334 as well as a batting average of .258 so far this year.

The Rays have a WHIP of 1.175 and are the owners of a FIP of 4.15 as a unit on the season. They come in at 6th in the league as a pitching staff in total hits given up with 712. The Tampa Bay pitching staff have yielded 382 runs so far this year while having an ERA of 3.81 (344 earned runs given up). Their K/BB ratio sits at 8.20 (738 strikeouts vs 242 bases on balls). They have surrendered 115 HR's and they yield 4.23 runs per 9 innings (9th in the league).

Sitting with 120 save situations, the Rays have earned 70 holds and also 13 blown saves. Tampa Bay has called on bullpen pitchers to step onto the mound in 50 save opportunities and they have recorded 37 saves. Tampa Bay bullpen pitchers hold an inherited score rate of 25.2% out of their 107 inherited base runners. Their bullpen pitchers have taken the field 92 times in high leverage situations in addition to 75 occasions with runners on. They are currently ranked 5th in baseball with a save rate of 74.0%, and they have dispatched 289 relievers to the hill for the season.

The Tampa Bay Rays have gotten 59 double plays and have a fielding rate of .983 (23rd in the majors). The Rays have racked up 730 assists, 55 errors and have a tally of 2,436 putouts this season. Out of their 7,308 innings on the diamond, the Rays are sitting with a defensive efficiency of 71.8% (3rd in the majors).

Jax (27-37 career win-loss record) has a 3.97 ERA while giving up 7.8 hits per nine innings. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.75 and he has faced 1,749 batters in his career. He has surrendered a total of 186 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.163 and a FIP of 3.9. During his MLB career, Jax has surrendered 364 hits while he has totaled 473 strikeouts in 421 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Tampa Bay (+162)

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