St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, 7/4/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs

Date: Saturday, July 4, 2026

Location: Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL

TV: Marquee

Odds/Point Spread: St. Louis (+132) Chicago (-160)

The St. Louis Cardinals (45-39) are en route to Wrigley Field on Saturday where they will meet the Chicago Cubs (49-38). The moneyline on this game has the Cardinals at +132 and the Cubs are priced at -160. The betting total comes in at 8.5. The expected starting pitchers are Kyle Leahy and Shota Imanaga.

St. Louis is slugging .393 and have been called out on strikes 646 times, while drawing a walk on 277 occasions. They have accounted for 367 RBI's and 693 hits so far this year, while their average at the plate sits at .246. The Cardinals have hit 116 two-baggers as a unit and have knocked 94 balls out of the park. They have notched a total of 379 runs scored and hold an on-base percentage of .323. As a unit, the St. Louis Cardinals are earning 4.5 runs per game, which puts them at 14th in baseball.

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The Cardinals have an earned run average of 4.23 this year (16th in the league), and the staff has rung up 629 batters. Cardinals pitchers have relinquished 90 long balls in addition to 383 runs in total (13th in baseball). They have walked 283 players from the other team and their FIP comes in at 4.28 as a team on the campaign. St. Louis has surrendered 726 base hits (8.7 per 9 innings) and 353 earned runs. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 2.22 and the pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.34.

The Cardinals have dispatched 287 relievers to the hill so far this season. The relief pitchers have inherited 135 base runners this year with 34.1% of those runners earned a run for their team. The relief pitchers have earned 59 holds this year (3rd in MLB). Cardinals relief pitchers have gone to the mound with runners on base 93 times as well as having 97 appearances in high leverage situations. They have compiled 26 saves so far this year and have not converted 13 out of their 39 save chances. The Cardinals relief pitchers have a save percentage of 66.7% and stepped onto the hill in 100 save situations.

The Cardinals have turned 69.6% of balls in play into outs in their 6,756 innings on the diamond, ranking them 17th in the majors. The St. Louis Cardinals have accumulated 2,252 putouts thus far, as well as 801 assists and 39 errors. Their fielding percentage is at .987 which puts them in 10th in MLB, and have a total of 77 double plays.

Leahy has taken the ball for 219 innings and is sitting with 182 strikeouts in his MLB career. His ERA is 3.82 (93 ER's allowed) and his WHIP is 1.309. He has given up 213 hits (8.7 hits per nine innings) and has 74 free passes. Leahy (11-8 career record) is the owner of a FIP of 3.76 while he has faced 927 hitters during his time in the major leagues.

The Cubs hold a team slugging % of .414 and they are earning 5.15 runs per contest (3rd in the league). They have put up 138 doubles, while taking a walk 390 times as well as earning 448 runs. Chicago has accounted for 112 HRs this season and 419 runs batted in. They have struck out on 737 occasions (13th in baseball) and have tallied 730 base knocks. The Chicago Cubs are sitting with an OBP of .340 and a team batting average of .245 on the year.

The Chicago pitching staff have relinquished 385 runs on the campaign while having a team ERA of 4.23 (364 earned runs surrendered). They have yielded 132 home runs and they allow 4.48 runs per 9 innings (13th in baseball). The Cubs are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.258 and have a FIP of 4.73 as a staff so far this season. Their strikeout to walk ratio comes in at 7.90 (680 strikeouts vs 268 walks). They are sitting at 16th in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits relinquished with 706.

Chicago relief pitchers have an inherited score rate of 29.5% out of 122 inherited base runners. Their relief pitchers have stepped onto the hill 83 times in high leverage situations and also on 86 occasions with runners on base. Sitting with 63 save situations, the Cubs have compiled 29 holds and also 14 blown saves. They rank 26th in the league holding a save rate of 51.7%, and they have dispatched 282 bullpen pitchers to the mound for the year.

The Chicago Cubs have turned 62 double plays and hold a fielding percentage of .989 (5th in baseball). The Cubs have racked up 809 assists, 34 errors and have amassed 2,323 putouts during this campaign. In 6,969 innings played, the Cubs have earned a defensive efficiency of 72.2% (2nd in MLB).

Thus far in his career, Imanaga has surrendered 349 base hits while he has accumulated 383 K's in 416 frames. He has conceded a total of 163 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.024 and being the owner of a FIP of 3.5. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 4.97 and he has faced 1,657 opposing hitters so far in his MLB career. Imanaga (29-17 win-loss record in his career) has earned a 3.53 ERA and has surrendered 7.5 hits per 9 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take St. Louis (+132)

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