St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, 7/5/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs

Date: Sunday, July 5, 2026

Location: Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL

TV: Marquee

Odds/Point Spread: St. Louis (+102) Chicago (-122)

The St. Louis Cardinals (45-39) are on their way to Wrigley Field on Sunday where they will compete against the Chicago Cubs (49-38). The line on this matchup has the Cardinals at +102 while the Cubs are sitting at -122. The over/under has been set at 8. The pitchers taking the mound are Matthew Liberatore and Javier Assad.

St. Louis has a slugging % of .393 and have been called out on strikes 646 times, while drawing a walk on 277 occasions. They have accumulated 367 runs batted in in addition to 693 hits for the year, while their average at the plate is .246. The Cardinals have tallied 116 two-baggers as a team and have smacked 94 balls out of the park. They have notched a total of 379 runs and hold an OBP of .323. As a squad, the St. Louis Cardinals are notching 4.5 runs per game, which puts them at 14th in the league.

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Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 2.22 and the pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.34. Cardinals pitchers have given up 90 home runs and also 383 runs (13th in MLB). St. Louis has given up 726 base knocks (8.7 per 9 innings) and also 353 earned runs. The Cardinals have an earned run average of 4.23 for the year (16th in baseball), and their staff has rung up 629 hitters. They have walked 283 players from the other team and their FIP sits at 4.28 as a unit over the course of the season.

The Cardinals relief pitchers have compiled a save rate of 66.7% and have stepped onto the mound in 100 save situations. They have compiled 26 saves so far this year and have blown 13 out of their 39 save chances. The relief pitchers have inherited 135 base runners for the year and 34.1% of those players ended up crossing the plate. Cardinals relief pitchers have stepped onto the hill with runners on base 93 times in addition to having 97 appearances in high leverage situations. The Cardinals have dispatched 287 relievers to the hill so far this season. The bullpen have recorded 59 holds on the season (3rd in MLB).

The Cardinals have turned 69.6% of balls in play into outs out of their 6,756 innings on the diamond, ranking them 17th in the majors. The St. Louis Cardinals have notched a total of 2,252 putouts this year, as well as 801 assists and 39 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding at .987 which puts them in 10th in the majors, and have earned 77 double plays.

Liberatore has thrown 416 innings and has accumulated 351 K's so far in his pro baseball career. Liberatore (20-29 career mark) is the owner of a FIP of 4.71 while he has gone up against 1,809 hitters during his time in the major leagues. His earned run average is 4.78 (221 ER's allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.408. He has conceded 442 base hits (9.6 hits per nine innings) and has 144 free passes.

Chicago has tallied 112 home runs on the year to go along with 419 runs batted in. They have 138 doubles, while getting a free base 390 times as well as scoring 448 runs. The Chicago Cubs have tallied a team on-base percentage of .340 and a team batting average of .245 so far this year. The Cubs hold a team SLG% of .414 and they have an average of 5.15 runs per contest (3rd in MLB). They have struck out on 737 occasions (13th in MLB) and have tallied 730 hits.

The Chicago pitching staff have surrendered 385 runs this season and come in with a team ERA of 4.23 (364 earned runs surrendered). They have surrendered 132 homers and they allow 4.48 runs per 9 innings (13th in MLB). The Cubs are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.258 and have a FIP of 4.73 as a squad for the season. They have earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 7.90 (680 strikeouts against 268 walks). They are currently ranked 16th in the league as a staff in total hits relinquished with 706.

Chicago relievers hold an inherited score rate of 29.5% out of 122 inherited runners. Their bullpen pitchers have come in 83 times in high leverage situations and also on 86 occasions with runners on. With 63 save situations, the Cubs have 29 holds and 14 blown saves. They are currently ranked 26th in the league with a save rate of 51.7%, and they have sent 282 relief pitchers onto the diamond on the season.

Out of their 6,969 innings played, the Cubs have accumulated a defensive efficiency of 72.2% (2nd in baseball). The Chicago Cubs have gotten 62 double plays and hold a fielding percentage of .989 (5th in the majors). The Cubs have 809 assists, 34 errors and have earned a total of 2,323 putouts this season.

Assad (24-13 win-loss mark in his career) holds a 3.58 ERA and has surrendered 8.2 hits per nine innings. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.03 and he has faced 1,613 opposing batters during his MLB career. He has given up a total of 152 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.303 and having a FIP of 3.5. During his career, Assad has conceded 349 base hits while accumulating 302 strikeouts in 382 innings pitched.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Chicago (-122)

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