Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, 5/10/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox

Date: Sunday, May 10, 2026

Location: Fenway Park in Boston, MA

TV: NESN

Odds/Point Spread: Tampa Bay (+125) Boston (-150)

The Tampa Bay Rays (25-12) are on their way to Fenway Park on Sunday where they will try to beat the Boston Red Sox (16-22). The moneyline on this contest has Tampa Bay at +125 and Boston is at -150. The total has been set at 8.5. The pitchers expected to start will be Drew Rasmussen and Payton Tolle.

The Rays have earned 46 two-baggers as a team and have knocked 31 balls out of the park. Tampa Bay has a slugging percentage of .379 and have been rung up 257 times, while taking a walk on 123 occasions. As a team, the Tampa Bay Rays are scoring 4.5 runs/g, which has them sitting at 12th in the league. They have accumulated 157 RBI's as well as 319 base knocks so far this year, while their team batting average is .257. They have accounted for 167 runs and have an OBP of .330.

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Their K/BB ratio is 2.47 and the pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.17. Rays pitchers have allowed 38 home runs in addition to 148 total runs (6th in MLB). Tampa Bay has allowed 275 hits (7.4 per 9 innings) as well as 131 earned runs. The Rays are sitting with a team earned run average of 3.54 on the campaign (4th in baseball), and the staff has rung up 287 hitters. They have walked 116 opposing hitters and their FIP is 4.01 as a squad on the season.

The Rays relief pitchers have recorded a save rate of 80.0% and have stepped onto the mound in 51 save situations. They have compiled 16 saves this season and have blown 4 out of their 20 chances to get a save. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 44 runners this season with 29.5% of those runners crossing home plate. Rays relief pitchers have come into the game with runners on 34 times as well as having 42 appearances in high leverage situations. The Rays have sent 120 relief pitchers to the mound so far this season. The relief pitchers have a total of 31 holds on the year (2nd in MLB).

The Tampa Bay Rays have earned a total of 1,000 putouts this season, in addition to 299 assists and 26 errors. Their fielding percentage is currently at .980 which is 29th in professional baseball, and they have turned 21 double plays. The Rays have transformed 72.8% of baseballs in play into outs in their 3,000 innings, which has them sitting at 3rd in pro baseball.

Rasmussen (32-18 career record) has earned a FIP of 2.86 and he has faced 1,987 hitters in the major leagues. He has conceded 400 hits (7.3 hits per nine innings) and has 125 walks. His earned run average is 2.90 (160 ER's allowed) and his WHIP is 1.058. Rasmussen has taken the mound for 496 innings and has racked up 465 strikeouts during his career.

Boston has 27 home runs for the year as well as 146 runs batted in. They have hit 60 doubles, while walking 127 times and recording 153 runs. The Boston Red Sox have recorded an OBP of .315 as well as a batting average of .237 so far this season. The Red Sox hold a slugging % of .353 and they have an average of 4.03 runs per game (24th in the league). They have struck out on 323 instances (11th in baseball) and are sitting with 302 base hits.

The Boston pitching staff have surrendered 164 runs over the course of the season while holding an ERA of 4.11 (153 earned runs allowed). They have allowed 46 home runs and they give up 4.40 runs per 9 innings (15th in baseball). The Red Sox have a WHIP of 1.316 and have a FIP of 4.41 as a pitching staff for the year. Their strikeout to walk ratio comes in at 8.10 (301 strikeouts vs 128 free passes). They are currently ranked 20th in baseball as a staff in total hits relinquished with 313.

Sitting with 29 save situations, the Red Sox have earned 18 holds in addition to 4 blown saves. Boston has called on relief pitchers to step onto the hill in 11 save chances and they have earned 7 saves. Boston relief pitchers hold an inherited score percentage of 32.0% of 50 inherited base runners. Their relievers have stepped onto the hill 32 times in high leverage situations in addition to 34 occasions with runners on base. They are currently ranked 15th in the league with a save percentage of 63.6%, and they have sent 116 bullpen pitchers onto the field over the course of the season.

The Boston Red Sox have turned 30 double plays and hold a fielding percentage of .987 (14th in professional baseball). The Red Sox have 347 assists, 18 errors and have accumulated 1,006 putouts over the course of the season. In 3,018 innings played, the Red Sox hold a defensive efficiency of 70.3% (15th in professional baseball).

Tolle (1-2 win-loss mark in his career) has earned a 4.05 ERA while allowing 6.8 hits per nine innings. His K/BB ratio is 3.00 and he has faced 141 batters so far in his pro baseball career. He has given up 15 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.171 and being the owner of a FIP of 4.0. In his pro baseball career, Tolle has given up 25 base knocks while he has accumulated 42 K's in 33 innings pitched.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Tampa Bay (+125)

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