Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, 5/7/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox

Date: Thursday, May 7, 2026

Location: Fenway Park in Boston, MA

TV: NESN

Odds/Point Spread: Tampa Bay (+110) Boston (-130)

The Boston Red Sox (15-21) are welcoming the Tampa Bay Rays (23-12) at Fenway Park on Thursday. The odds on this game have the Rays at +110 while the Red Sox are sitting at -130. The total is set at 8. The starting pitchers will be Jesse Scholtens and Connelly Early.

The Rays have hit 44 doubles as a unit and have knocked 30 baseballs out of the stadium. Tampa Bay owns a slugging percentage of .377 and have struck out 251 times, while drawing a walk on 114 occasions. As a unit, the Tampa Bay Rays are scoring 4.5 runs per game, which has them sitting at 15th in the league. They have 147 RBI's and 300 base knocks on the season, while their team batting average comes in at .255. They have racked up 156 runs while having a team OBP of .327.

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The Rays have a team earned run average of 3.65 this year (5th in baseball), and they have struck out 274 hitters. Rays pitchers have allowed 38 home runs and 144 runs (6th in baseball). They have walked 114 opposing hitters and their FIP sits at 4.12 as a team on the campaign. Tampa Bay has given up 264 hits (7.5 per 9 innings) and 128 earned runs. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 2.40 and their pitching staff has a team WHIP of 1.20.

The Rays bullpen have recorded a save rate of 78.9% and have entered the game in 45 save situations. They have compiled 15 saves for the season and have blown 4 of their 19 chances to save the game. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 41 runners on the campaign with 31.7% of those runners crossing home plate. Rays bullpen pitchers have stepped onto the hill with runners on base 32 times and also have had 40 appearances in high leverage situations. The Rays have dispatched 112 relief pitchers to the hill this season. The relief pitchers have accumulated 26 holds on the year (3rd in the league).

The Rays have transformed 72.6% of balls in play into outs in their 2,838 innings on the field, which ranks them 3rd in pro baseball. The Tampa Bay Rays have amassed 946 putouts so far this season, as well as 275 assists and 25 errors. Their fielding percentage sits at .980 which has them ranked 28th in pro baseball, and have accumulated 20 double plays.

Scholtens has taken the ball for 115 innings and has accounted for 87 K's in his career. His ERA is 4.92 (63 earned runs allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.457. He has given up 129 base knocks (10.1 hits per nine innings) and has 39 free passes. Scholtens (4-11 career mark) is the owner of a FIP of 4.84 while he has faced 509 batters during his time in the major leagues.

Boston has 27 HRs so far this season as well as 140 RBIs. They have hit 58 two-baggers, while getting a free base 119 times as well as putting up 145 runs. The Boston Red Sox have an on-base percentage of .318 in addition to a team batting average of .240 for the season. The Red Sox have a slugging percentage of .361 and they average 4.03 runs per contest (26th in MLB). They have been rung up on 302 occasions (15th in the league) and have earned a total of 291 hits.

The Red Sox have a team WHIP of 1.309 with a FIP of 4.43 as a team this year. They currently have a strikeout to walk ratio of 8.30 (291 strikeouts vs 119 bases on balls). They rank 17th in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits surrendered with 296. They have given up 45 homers and they concede 4.43 runs per 9 innings (13th in MLB). The Boston pitching staff have conceded 156 runs this season while having an ERA of 4.12 (145 earned runs conceded).

Sitting with 29 save situations, the Red Sox have amassed 18 holds and 4 blown saves. Boston has had bullpen pitchers step onto the hill in 11 save opportunities and they have converted 7 saves. Boston relievers have an inherited score rate of 31.9% out of 47 inherited runners. Their relief pitchers have taken the field 31 times in high leverage situations and on 32 occasions with base runners. They are ranked 14th in the league with a save percentage of 63.6%, and they have sent 110 relievers to the hill on the year.

The Boston Red Sox have gotten 28 double plays and have accounted for a fielding rate of .986 (16th in professional baseball). The Red Sox have 326 assists, 18 errors and have accumulated 952 putouts for the year. In their 2,856 innings played, the Red Sox hold a defensive efficiency of 70.2% (14th in the majors).

So far in his career, Early has given up 47 hits while he has accumulated 60 K's in 54 innings pitched. He has surrendered a total of 20 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.252 and being the owner of a FIP of 3.3. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.86 and he has faced 230 opposing batters so far in his pro baseball career. Early (3-4 record in his career) has earned a 3.31 ERA while surrendering 7.8 hits per 9 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Boston (-130)

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