Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, 7/17/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox

Date: Friday, July 17, 2026

Location: Fenway Park in Boston, MA

TV: NESN

Odds/Point Spread: Tampa Bay (+102) Boston (-122)

The Boston Red Sox (46-48) will compete against the Tampa Bay Rays (56-38) at Fenway Park on Friday. The moneyline on this contest has Tampa Bay at +102 while Boston is at -122. The over/under comes in at 9. The expected starting pitchers will be Griffin Jax and Sonny Gray.

The Rays have tallied 133 two-baggers as a unit and have smacked 94 baseballs out of the park. Tampa Bay has a slugging percentage of .401 and have been called out on strikes 672 times, while taking a walk on 329 occasions. As a team, the Tampa Bay Rays are recording 4.5 runs per outing, which puts them at 15th in baseball. They have 404 runs batted in as well as 811 base knocks so far this year, while their batting average is sitting at .259. They are sitting with 425 runs while holding a team OBP of .334.

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The Rays have compiled a team earned run average of 3.80 for the year (9th in MLB), and their staff has struck out 762 batters. Rays pitchers have conceded 118 long balls and 393 runs in total (9th in MLB). They have walked 252 opposing players and their FIP comes in at 4.13 as a team over the course of the season. Tampa Bay has given up 732 base hits (7.9 per 9 innings) and 354 earned runs. Their K/BB ratio is 3.02 and the pitching staff has a team WHIP of 1.17.

The Rays relief pitchers have accumulated a save percentage of 74.0% and have come into the game in 123 save situations. They have compiled 37 saves so far this year and have not converted 13 out of their 50 save chances. The relief pitchers have inherited 113 runners for the year and 26.5% of those players ended up crossing the plate. Rays relief pitchers have entered the contest with players on base 78 times in addition to having 93 appearances in high leverage situations. The Rays have dispatched 299 relievers to the mound so far this year. The relievers have accumulated 73 holds this season (2nd in the league).

The Rays have turned 71.8% of balls hit into play into outs out of 7,551 innings on the diamond, which has them sitting at 2nd in professional baseball. The Tampa Bay Rays have earned 2,517 putouts at this point in the season, as well as 759 assists and 57 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding steady at .983 which has them sitting 23rd in baseball, and they have turned 64 double plays.

Jax has pitched in 426 innings and has accounted for 476 punch outs during his career. His earned run average is 3.95 (187 earned runs allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.166. He has allowed 368 hits (7.8 hits per 9 innings) and has had 129 free passes. Jax (28-37 career mark) has earned a FIP of 3.89 while facing 1,770 batters in the major leagues.

The Boston Red Sox have recorded an OBP of .314 and a batting average of .243 over the course of the season. They have struck out on 775 instances (23rd in baseball) and have accounted for 764 hits. Boston has recorded 85 home runs on the year to go along with 368 runs batted in. The Red Sox have a team slugging percentage of .387 and they are scoring 4.10 runs per game (25th in baseball). They have tallied 165 doubles, while walking 286 times and putting up 385 runs.

The Red Sox have a WHIP of 1.223 and are the owners of a FIP of 3.78 as a squad over the course of the season. Their K/BB ratio sits at 8.70 (802 strikeouts against 273 walks). They sit at 8th in the league as a pitching staff in total hits allowed with 745. They have allowed 96 long balls and they surrender 3.87 runs per 9 innings (3rd in the league). The Boston pitching staff have given up 358 runs for the season while holding a team ERA of 3.59 (332 earned runs surrendered).

Sitting with 88 save situations, the Red Sox have 55 holds in addition to 9 blown saves. Boston has called on relievers to step onto the mound in 31 save opportunities and they have tallied 22 saves. Boston relievers have an inherited score percentage of 32.1% out of their 112 inherited runners. Their relief pitchers have come in 79 times in high leverage situations and also on 78 occasions with base runners. They sit at 9th in MLB with a save rate of 71.0%, and they have dispatched 289 relief pitchers to the hill so far this year.

The Boston Red Sox have gotten 62 double plays and have earned a fielding percentage of .988 (7th in the majors). The Red Sox have racked up 794 assists, 41 errors and have a total of 2,497 putouts so far this season. In their 7,491 innings on the diamond, the Red Sox have accumulated a defensive efficiency of 70.3% (14th in the majors).

Gray (136-103 record in his career) has earned a 3.53 earned run average and has allowed 7.9 hits per nine innings. His strikeout to walk ratio is 3.12 and he has gone up against 8,334 hitters so far in his career. He has conceded a total of 790 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.193 and a FIP of 3.5. In his career, Gray has surrendered 1,756 base hits while he has accumulated 2,010 strikeouts in 2,013 frames.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Parlay's Pundit's Pick: Take Boston (-122) and under 9 runs

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