Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction, 10/16/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians

Date: Friday, October 16, 2026

Location: Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH

TV: TBS

Odds/Point Spread: Tampa Bay (-102) Cleveland (-118)

The Cleveland Guardians (85-77) will compete against the Tampa Bay Rays (98-64) at Progressive Field on Friday in Game 4 of the ALCS. The moneyline on this contest has the Rays at -102 while the Guardians are coming in at -118. The over/under comes in at 6.5. The pitchers who are expected to start are Nick Martinez and Tanner Bibee.

Tampa Bay has a slugging rate of .402 and have been rung up 1,145 times, while being walked on 514 occasions. They have earned 700 runs batted in and 1,405 hits so far this year, while their average at the plate is at .258. The Rays have recorded 230 two-baggers as a unit and have smacked 169 baseballs out of the stadium. They have notched a total of 736 runs while having a team on-base percentage of .326. As a squad, the Tampa Bay Rays are knocking in 4.5 runs/g, which has them at 12th in the league.

Get all of our MLB Expert Picks

They have a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.23 and the pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.14. Rays pitchers have relinquished 201 long balls and also 650 runs (6th in MLB). Tampa Bay has conceded 1,235 base hits (7.7 per 9 innings) in addition to 594 earned runs. The Rays have a team earned run average of 3.70 so far this year (7th in the league), and they have rung up 1,322 hitters. Their pitching staff has walked 409 hitters and their FIP is 4.04 as a unit on the year.

The Rays relievers have recorded a save percentage of 74.4% and have entered the game in 194 save situations. They have accumulated 58 saves this season and have not converted 20 of 78 save chances. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 192 base runners for the season and 32.3% of them crossing the plate. Rays bullpen pitchers have stepped onto the hill with runners on 134 times as well as having 163 appearances in high leverage situations. The Rays have dispatched 522 relievers to the hill this year. The relievers have 115 holds over the course of the season (2nd in the league).

The Tampa Bay Rays have earned 4,329 putouts this season, in addition to 1,279 assists and 92 errors. Their fielding rate is currently at .984 which has them sitting 21st in professional baseball, and have accumulated 100 double plays. The Rays have transformed 72.3% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 12,987 innings on the field, ranking them 1st in the majors.

Martinez (63-65 career record) has a FIP of 3.93 and he has faced 4,709 batters during his time in the majors. He has conceded 1,106 base hits (8.9 hits per 9 innings) and has 315 walks. His ERA is 3.99 (496 ER's allowed) and his WHIP is 1.269. Martinez has taken the ball for 1,120 innings and has accumulated 779 strikeouts so far in his pro baseball career.

The Cleveland Guardians are sitting with a team on-base percentage of .316 in addition to a batting average of .239 for the season. They have been called out on strikes on 1,271 occasions (26th in MLB) and have accounted for 1,291 hits. Cleveland has compiled 162 home runs this year to go along with 650 runs batted in. The Guardians hold a slugging % of .380 and they score 4.19 runs per game (24th in the league). They have hit 249 two-baggers, while getting a free base 574 times as well as putting up 678 runs.

The Cleveland pitching staff have given up 667 runs this season while holding an ERA of 3.77 (602 earned runs surrendered). They have allowed 175 homers and they yield 4.18 runs per 9 innings (8th in MLB). The Guardians have a WHIP of 1.264 and have a FIP of 3.82 as a team this year. Their K/BB ratio sits at 9.60 (1,530 strikeouts against 530 free passes). They have a ranking of 10th in MLB as a staff in total hits conceded with 1,286.

Cleveland relief pitchers have an inherited score percentage of 28.4% out of 261 inherited runners. Their relievers have come in 178 times in high leverage situations and on 166 occasions with base runners. Sitting with 183 save situations, the Guardians have 117 holds and also 18 blown saves. They are ranked 6th in MLB holding a save percentage of 71.9%, and they have dispatched 555 relievers to the mound for the year.

The Cleveland Guardians have gotten 108 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .985 (17th in pro baseball). The Guardians have 1,262 assists, 86 errors and have amassed 4,313 putouts during this campaign. In their 12,939 innings on the field, the Guardians are sitting with a defensive efficiency of 69.1% (23rd in the majors).

Bibee (41-38 career mark) has earned a 3.82 earned run average while surrendering 8.1 hits per 9 innings. His strikeout to walk ratio is 3.22 and he has gone up against 2,837 opposing batters during his career. He has allowed a total of 291 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.188 and having a FIP of 3.8. During his pro baseball career, Bibee has given up 617 base hits and he has 638 K's in 686 frames.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Tampa Bay (-102)

Get $60 worth of FREE premium member picks. No Obligation. No Salesman. No Credit Card. Fast Sign up with Instant Access Click Here

Get MLB picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bets by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.