Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction, 10/17/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians

Date: Saturday, October 17, 2026

Location: Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH

TV: TBS

Odds/Point Spread: Tampa Bay (-112) Cleveland (-108)

The Cleveland Guardians (85-77) will take on the Tampa Bay Rays (98-64) at Progressive Field on Saturday in Game 5 of the ALCS. The odds on this game have the Rays at -112 while the Guardians are coming in at -108. The betting total comes in at 7. The pitchers who are expected to start are Drew Rasmussen and Foster Griffin.

The Rays have earned 230 doubles as a squad and have hit 169 baseballs out of the park. Tampa Bay has a slugging rate of .402 and have struck out 1,145 times, while being walked on 514 occasions. As a squad, the Tampa Bay Rays are scoring 4.5 runs per game, which ranks them 12th in MLB. They have accrued 700 runs batted in as well as 1,405 hits this season, and their team batting average is sitting at .258. They have accumulated 736 runs while holding a team OBP of .326.

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Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 3.23 and the pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.14. Rays pitchers have conceded 201 home runs and 650 total runs (6th in MLB). Tampa Bay has allowed 1,235 base hits (7.7 per 9 innings) as well as 594 earned runs. The Rays have a team earned run average of 3.70 on the season (7th in MLB), and their staff has rung up 1,322 batters. They have walked 409 batters and their FIP comes in at 4.04 as a squad this season.

The Rays have dispatched 522 relievers to the hill so far this year. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 192 base runners this season and 32.3% of those runners crossing home plate. The relief pitchers have accumulated 115 holds this year (2nd in the league). Rays bullpen pitchers have gone to the mound with players on base 134 times as well as having 163 appearances in high leverage situations. They have compiled 58 saves on the year and have blown 20 of 78 save chances. The Rays relief pitchers have compiled a save rate of 74.4% and have entered the game in 194 save situations.

The Rays have turned 72.3% of baseballs in play into outs in their 12,987 innings on the field, which ranks them 1st in professional baseball. The Tampa Bay Rays have earned a total of 4,329 putouts at this point in the season, as well as 1,279 assists and 92 errors. Their fielding rate is holding at .984 which puts them in 21st in professional baseball, and have a total of 100 double plays.

Rasmussen has taken the mound for 632 innings and has earned 602 punch outs so far in his pro baseball career. Rasmussen (46-22 win-loss mark in his career) holds a FIP of 2.79 and he has faced 2,509 hitters during his time in the majors. His ERA is 2.83 (199 earned runs allowed) and his WHIP is 1.025. He has conceded 497 base knocks (7.1 hits per 9 innings) and has had 151 walks.

Cleveland is sitting with 162 long balls for the year as well as 650 RBIs. They have hit 249 doubles, while walking 574 times and recording 678 runs. The Cleveland Guardians have earned an OBP of .316 as well as a team batting average of .239 on the year. The Guardians hold a team SLG% of .380 and they average 4.19 runs per game (24th in baseball). They have been rung up on 1,271 occasions (26th in baseball) and have recorded 1,291 hits.

The Guardians are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.264 with a FIP of 3.82 as a team for the year. They come in at 10th in baseball as a pitching staff in total hits given up with 1,286. The Cleveland pitching staff have relinquished 667 runs for the year while having a team ERA of 3.77 (602 earned runs surrendered). Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 9.60 (1,530 strikeouts against 530 free passes). They have allowed 175 long balls and they give up 4.18 runs per 9 innings (8th in the league).

Cleveland relievers have an inherited score percentage of 28.4% out of 261 inherited base runners. Their relievers have stepped onto the mound 178 times in high leverage situations and on 166 occasions with runners on base. Sitting with 183 save situations, the Guardians have accumulated 117 holds in addition to 18 blown saves. They sit at 6th in MLB with a save rate of 71.9%, and they have dispatched 555 relief pitchers onto the diamond on the year.

The Cleveland Guardians have gotten 108 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .985 (17th in professional baseball). The Guardians have 1,262 assists, 86 errors and have accumulated 4,313 putouts this year. In 12,939 innings on the field, the Guardians are sitting with a defensive efficiency of 69.1% (23rd in baseball).

Griffin (13-3 career mark) has a 3.28 ERA while giving up 7.6 hits per 9 innings. His K/BB ratio is 3.46 and he has gone up against 562 opposing hitters during his MLB career. He has allowed 50 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.101 and being the owner of a FIP of 3.2. So far in his pro baseball career, Griffin has surrendered 116 hits while earning 121 strikeouts in 137 innings pitched.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Tampa Bay (-112)

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