Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros Prediction, 7/3/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros

Date: Friday, July 3, 2026

Location: Daikin Park in Houston, TX

TV: Space City Home Network

Odds/Point Spread: Tampa Bay (-130) Houston (+110)

Daikin Park is where the Houston Astros (43-45) will go up against the Tampa Bay Rays (49-33) on Friday. The odds on this game have Tampa Bay at -130 and Houston is opening at +110. The total is 8.5. The starting pitchers will be Nick Martinez and Spencer Arrighetti.

The Rays have compiled 118 doubles as a team and have knocked 76 baseballs out of the stadium. Tampa Bay has a slugging % of .396 and have been called out on strikes 582 times, while being walked on 302 occasions. As a unit, the Tampa Bay Rays are earning 4.6 runs per game, which has them sitting at 11th in baseball. They have 359 RBI's and 711 hits so far this year, and their average at the plate is .260. They have earned 376 runs scored and have an on-base percentage of .339.

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The Rays hold a team ERA of 3.78 for the year (9th in baseball), and the staff has struck out 649 hitters. Rays pitchers have given up 100 long balls in addition to 346 runs in total (8th in MLB). They have walked 229 opposing hitters and their FIP comes in at 4.16 as a team on the season. Tampa Bay has allowed 647 hits (7.9 per 9 innings) and 308 earned runs. They have accrued a K/BB ratio of 2.83 and the pitching staff has recorded a WHIP of 1.20.

The Rays have dispatched 260 relief pitchers to the hill over the course of the season. The relief pitchers have inherited 94 base runners on the year with 24.5% of them crossing home plate. The bullpen have earned 61 holds so far this season (2nd in baseball). Rays pitchers have entered the game with runners on 67 times in addition to having 83 appearances in high leverage situations. They have accumulated 32 saves on the campaign and have blown 12 of 44 save chances. The Rays relievers have accumulated a save rate of 72.7% and have stepped onto the mound in 105 save situations.

The Rays have converted 71.8% of balls in play into outs out of their 6,597 innings, which has them sitting 4th in pro baseball. The Tampa Bay Rays have earned 2,199 putouts over the course of the season, in addition to 663 assists and 47 errors. Their fielding rate is currently at .984 which has them ranked 21st in professional baseball, and they have turned 51 double plays.

Martinez (55-61 mark in his career) has a FIP of 3.96 and he has faced 4,374 batters in the majors. He has surrendered 1,027 hits (8.9 hits per 9 innings) with 306 walks. His ERA is 4.02 (462 ER's allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.289. Martinez has thrown 1,034 frames and has earned 728 K's thus far in his career.

Houston is sitting with 116 home runs on the year and 380 runs batted in. They have hit 139 doubles, while getting a free base 293 times and notching 397 runs. The Houston Astros have tallied an OBP of .316 and a team batting average of .241 for the season. The Astros have a slugging percentage of .410 and they are scoring 4.51 runs per contest (14th in baseball). They have been called out on strikes on 721 instances (15th in baseball) and have notched a total of 715 base hits.

The Astros hold a team WHIP of 1.391 and are the owners of a FIP of 4.77 as a squad so far this year. Their K/BB ratio is 8.70 (756 strikeouts vs 380 walks). They are currently ranked 20th in MLB as a staff in total hits given up with 704. They have given up 116 homers and they allow 5.06 runs per 9 innings (23rd in baseball). The Houston pitching staff have allowed 438 runs on the year while having a team ERA of 4.74 (410 earned runs surrendered).

Houston bullpen pitchers hold an inherited score rate of 27.8% out of their 126 inherited runners. Their relief pitchers have stepped onto the hill 81 times in high leverage situations and on 83 occasions with runners on. With 70 save situations, the Astros have amassed 39 holds in addition to 5 blown saves. They rank 1st in the league holding a save rate of 83.9%, and they have dispatched 273 relief pitchers onto the field so far this season.

The Houston Astros have turned 76 double plays and have notched a fielding percentage of .988 (7th in pro baseball). The Astros have 658 assists, 36 errors and have a total of 2,338 putouts over the course of the season. In 7,014 innings played, the Astros have a efficiency on defense of 70.7% (11th in pro baseball).

Arrighetti (15-22 career record) has a 4.50 earned run average while giving up 8.0 hits per 9 innings. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.27 and he has gone up against 1,100 hitters during his MLB career. He has allowed 126 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.376 and being the owner of a FIP of 4.4. In his career, Arrighetti has surrendered 225 base knocks while he has tallied 277 punch outs in 252 innings pitched.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Houston (+110)

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