Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros Prediction, 7/4/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros

Date: Saturday, July 4, 2026

Location: Daikin Park in Houston, TX

TV: Space City Home Network

Odds/Point Spread: Tampa Bay (-144) Houston (+120)

The Houston Astros (43-46) will take on the Tampa Bay Rays (51-33) at Daikin Park on Saturday. The moneyline on this contest has Tampa Bay at -144 and Houston is at +120. The over/under is 8. The pitchers who are expected to start are Drew Rasmussen and Hunter Brown.

As a squad, the Tampa Bay Rays are recording 4.6 runs per game, which puts them at 13th in the league. They have racked up 385 runs and hold an OBP of .339. The Rays have compiled 121 doubles as a squad and have knocked 79 baseballs out of the park. They have recorded 368 runs batted in as well as 733 base knocks over the course of the season, and their average at the plate is sitting at .261. Tampa Bay has a slugging rate of .398 and have been rung up 595 times, while taking a walk on 305 occasions.

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Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 2.88 and their pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.18. Rays pitchers have conceded 102 home runs and 348 runs (7th in MLB). Tampa Bay has conceded 658 base hits (7.9 per 9 innings) as well as 310 earned runs. The Rays have a team ERA of 3.72 on the campaign (6th in the league), and their staff has struck out 666 hitters. Their pitching staff has walked 231 opposing batters and their FIP comes in at 4.14 as a unit for the season.

Rays relief pitchers have gone to the mound with players on base 68 times in addition to having 83 appearances in high leverage situations. The bullpen have 63 holds on the campaign (2nd in the league). The Rays relief pitchers have accumulated a save rate of 73.9% and have stepped onto the mound in 109 save situations. They have compiled 34 saves so far this year and have not converted 12 out of their 46 chances to get a save. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 96 runners on the season with 24.0% of those runners earned a run for their team. The Rays have sent 266 relief pitchers to the hill for the season.

The Rays have converted 71.9% of balls in play into outs in their 6,759 innings on the diamond, which has them ranked 3rd in MLB. The Tampa Bay Rays have a total of 2,253 putouts at this point in the season, in addition to 681 assists and 50 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding at .983 which puts them in 22nd in the majors, and they have turned 54 double plays.

Rasmussen (37-21 career mark) sits with a FIP of 2.78 and he has faced 2,196 batters during his time in the majors. He has surrendered 436 hits (7.1 hits per nine innings) and has 135 free passes. His ERA is 2.82 (173 earned runs allowed) and his WHIP is 1.034. Rasmussen has pitched in 552 innings and has accumulated 522 strikeouts so far in his career.

The Astros hold a team slugging % of .409 and they score 4.49 runs per game (15th in the league). They have recorded 140 doubles, while walking 297 times and notching 400 runs. Houston has 116 home runs so far this year as well as 382 RBIs. They have been rung up on 734 occasions (15th in MLB) and have notched a total of 725 base knocks. The Houston Astros are sitting with a team on-base percentage of .316 as well as a batting average of .242 so far this season.

The Astros hold a team WHIP of 1.393 with a FIP of 4.80 as a staff on the year. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 8.80 (768 strikeouts against 386 bases on balls). They rank 19th in baseball as a staff in total hits given up with 712. They have conceded 119 homers and they relinquish 5.09 runs per 9 innings (25th in baseball). The Houston pitching staff have surrendered 446 runs on the campaign while having a team ERA of 4.77 (418 earned runs yielded).

With 70 save situations, the Astros have accrued 39 holds in addition to 5 blown saves. Houston has called on bullpen pitchers to enter the contest in 31 save opportunities and they have tallied 26 saves. Houston relievers have an inherited score rate of 27.6% out of their 127 inherited base runners. Their relief pitchers have stepped onto the hill 81 times in high leverage situations in addition to 84 occasions with runners on. They are ranked 1st in MLB with a save rate of 83.9%, and they have sent 277 relievers to the hill for the season.

The Houston Astros have turned 76 double plays and have notched a fielding percentage of .988 (7th in professional baseball). The Astros have 662 assists, 36 errors and have amassed 2,365 putouts this season. In 7,095 innings on the field, the Astros have earned a defensive efficiency of 70.7% (9th in professional baseball).

During his career, Brown has allowed 478 base knocks while accumulating 617 punch outs in 556 innings. Brown (37-31 career mark) has a 3.41 ERA while allowing 7.7 hits per nine innings. He has given up a total of 211 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.205 and a FIP of 3.4. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.21 and he has gone up against 2,292 hitters in his career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Tampa Bay (-144)

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