Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros Prediction, 7/5/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros

Date: Sunday, July 5, 2026

Location: Daikin Park in Houston, TX

TV: Space City Home Network

Odds/Point Spread: Tampa Bay (-130) Houston (+110)

Daikin Park is the location where the Houston Astros (43-46) will go up against the Tampa Bay Rays (51-33) on Sunday. The moneyline on this game has the Rays at -130 and the Astros are priced at +110. The over/under comes in at 8.5. The expected starting pitchers will be Griffin Jax and Peter Lambert.

The Rays have hit 121 doubles as a team and have hit 79 baseballs out of the park. Tampa Bay has a slugging % of .398 and have struck out 595 times, while drawing a walk on 305 occasions. As a squad, the Tampa Bay Rays are knocking in 4.6 runs per game, which ranks them 13th in the league. They have recorded 368 runs batted in and 733 hits on the campaign, and their average at the plate is sitting at .261. They are sitting with 385 runs while having a team on-base percentage of .339.

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Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 2.88 and the pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.18. Rays pitchers have allowed 102 long balls and also 348 total runs (7th in baseball). Tampa Bay has yielded 658 base knocks (7.9 per 9 innings) in addition to 310 earned runs. The Rays hold a team ERA of 3.72 on the season (6th in the league), and the staff has struck out 666 batters. Their pitching staff has walked 231 players from the other team and their FIP sits at 4.14 as a unit on the year.

The Rays bullpen have accumulated a save rate of 73.9% and stepped onto the hill in 109 save situations. They have compiled 34 saves on the year and have blown 12 of 46 chances to save the game. The relief pitchers have inherited 96 base runners on the campaign with 24.0% of them crossing the plate. Rays relief pitchers have stepped onto the hill with opponents on base 68 times in addition to having 83 appearances in high leverage situations. The Rays have sent 266 relief pitchers to the mound this year. The relievers have racked up 63 holds on the season (2nd in baseball).

The Tampa Bay Rays have a total of 2,253 putouts on the campaign, as well as 681 assists and 50 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding steady at .983 which has them sitting 22nd in professional baseball, and have accumulated 54 double plays. The Rays have transformed 71.9% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 6,759 innings on the field, which has them ranked 3rd in pro baseball.

Jax (27-36 win-loss record in his career) has a FIP of 3.90 while going up against 1,731 hitters in the major leagues. He has surrendered 363 hits (7.8 hits per nine innings) and has 124 free passes. His earned run average is 3.96 (183 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.170. Jax has taken the mound for 416 frames and has racked up 463 K's in his MLB career.

The Astros hold a team slugging % of .409 and they have an average of 4.49 runs per game (15th in the league). They have tallied 140 two-baggers, while taking a walk 297 times and scoring 400 runs. Houston has accounted for 116 long balls this year and 382 runs batted in. They have been rung up on 734 occasions (15th in the league) and have earned 725 base hits. The Houston Astros have a team on-base percentage of .316 in addition to a batting average of .242 over the course of the season.

The Houston pitching staff have conceded 446 runs over the course of the season while holding a team ERA of 4.77 (418 earned runs conceded). They have surrendered 119 dingers and they yield 5.09 runs per 9 innings (25th in the league). The Astros have a team WHIP of 1.393 in addition to having a FIP of 4.80 as a pitching staff for the season. Their strikeout to walk ratio comes in at 8.80 (768 strikeouts vs 386 walks). They have a ranking of 19th in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits allowed with 712.

They are currently ranked 1st in baseball with a save rate of 83.9%, and they have sent 277 bullpen pitchers onto the field so far this season. Their relief pitchers have stepped onto the hill 81 times in high leverage situations and on 84 occasions with runners on. Sitting with 70 save situations, the Astros have 39 holds and also 5 blown saves. Houston has had relief pitchers enter the game in 31 save opportunities and they have come away with 26 saves. Houston relief pitchers have an inherited score percentage of 27.6% out of 127 inherited base runners.

In 7,095 innings played, the Astros have accumulated a efficiency on defense of 70.7% (9th in the majors). The Houston Astros have turned 76 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .988 (7th in professional baseball). The Astros have racked up 662 assists, 36 errors and have 2,365 putouts so far this season.

During his pro baseball career, Lambert has surrendered 354 hits while earning 249 K's in 317 innings. He has conceded a total of 199 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.513 and having a FIP of 5.6. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 1.98 and he has gone up against 1,415 hitters so far in his pro baseball career. Lambert (14-24 win-loss record in his career) is the owner of a 5.64 earned run average while allowing 10.0 hits per 9 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Houston (+110)

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