Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Prediction, 10/7/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees

Date: Wednesday, October 7, 2026

Location: Yankee Stadium in Bronx, NY

TV: TBS

Odds/Point Spread: Tampa Bay (+134) New York (-162)

Yankee Stadium is the location where the New York Yankees (93-68) will play the Tampa Bay Rays (98-64) on Wednesday in Game 3 of the ALDS. The Rays lead 2-0. The line on this contest has the Rays at +134 while the Yankees are at -162. The over/under is set at 7. The starting pitchers are Nick Martinez and Max Fried.

Tampa Bay owns a slugging percentage of .402 and have struck out 1,145 times, while drawing a walk on 514 occasions. They have accounted for 700 runs batted in in addition to 1,405 base knocks on the season, while their average at the plate sits at .258. The Rays have hit 230 doubles as a team and have smacked 169 baseballs out of the stadium. They have a total of 736 runs while having a team OBP of .326. As a unit, the Tampa Bay Rays are scoring 4.5 runs per contest, which puts them at 12th in baseball.

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They have accumulated a K/BB ratio of 3.23 and the pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.14. Rays pitchers have yielded 201 long balls and also 650 total runs (6th in MLB). Tampa Bay has surrendered 1,235 hits (7.7 per 9 innings) in addition to 594 earned runs. The Rays have compiled a team earned run average of 3.70 for the season (7th in the league), and they have rung up 1,322 batters. They have walked 409 players from the other team and their FIP is 4.04 as a team this season.

The Rays have dispatched 522 relievers to the hill this year. The relief pitchers have inherited 192 runners on the campaign and 32.3% of those players earned a run for their team. The relief pitchers are sitting with 115 holds this year (2nd in baseball). Rays relief pitchers have gone to the mound with runners on 134 times in addition to having 163 appearances in high leverage situations. They have recorded 58 saves this season and have blown 20 of their 78 save opportunities. The Rays relievers have earned a save percentage of 74.4% and have entered the game in 194 save situations.

The Rays have transformed 72.3% of balls in play into outs in their 12,987 innings, ranking them 1st in pro baseball. The Tampa Bay Rays have a tally of 4,329 putouts on the year, in addition to 1,279 assists and 92 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding steady at .984 which is 21st in pro baseball, and have a total of 100 double plays.

Martinez has taken the hill for 1,120 innings and has totaled 779 punch outs so far in his career. Martinez (63-65 record in his career) sits with a FIP of 3.93 while he has gone up against 4,709 hitters during his time in the major leagues. His earned run average is 3.99 (496 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.269. He has allowed 1,106 hits (8.9 hits per 9 innings) with 315 walks.

The Yankees hold a team slugging % of .409 and they average 4.59 runs per contest (8th in baseball). They have recorded 224 two-baggers, while taking a walk 572 times as well as scoring 739 runs. New York is sitting with 223 home runs on the campaign to go along with 706 RBIs. They have struck out on 1,480 instances (6th in MLB) and have a total of 1,250 hits. The New York Yankees hold an on-base percentage of .311 and a batting average of .235 on the year.

The New York pitching staff have allowed 601 runs on the campaign while holding a team ERA of 3.24 (519 earned runs yielded). They have yielded 165 homers and they allow 3.75 runs per 9 innings (1st in baseball). The Yankees hold a team WHIP of 1.174 in addition to having a FIP of 3.71 as a squad so far this season. Their K/BB ratio sits at 9.10 (1,450 strikeouts vs 488 free passes). They are currently ranked 3rd in MLB as a staff in total hits conceded with 1,204.

New York relievers hold an inherited score percentage of 22.1% out of their 271 inherited runners. Their relief pitchers have taken the field 175 times in high leverage situations in addition to 190 occasions with runners on base. With 162 save situations, the Yankees have accumulated 86 holds in addition to 28 blown saves. They are ranked 17th in baseball with a save percentage of 61.6%, and they have sent 532 relievers onto the field on the campaign.

Out of their 12,972 innings played, the Yankees have earned a defensive efficiency of 71.1% (7th in pro baseball). The New York Yankees have turned 123 double plays and hold a fielding percentage of .983 (22nd in baseball). The Yankees have racked up 1,395 assists, 96 errors and have a tally of 4,324 putouts during this campaign.

So far in his pro baseball career, Fried has given up 1,026 hits while accumulating 1,156 strikeouts in 1,191 innings pitched. Fried (97-46 career mark) has a 3.01 ERA and has surrendered 7.8 hits per 9 innings. He has surrendered a total of 399 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.138 and having a FIP of 3.0. His strikeout to walk ratio is 3.50 and he has gone up against 4,849 opposing batters in his pro baseball career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take New York (-162)

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