Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, 9/25/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies

Date: Friday, September 25, 2026

Location: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA

TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia

Odds/Point Spread: Tampa Bay (+106) Philadelphia (-128)

The Philadelphia Phillies (87-70) will try to defeat the Tampa Bay Rays (96-61) at Citizens Bank Park on Friday. The line on this contest has Tampa Bay at +106 while Philadelphia is sitting at -128. The over/under is set at 8. The pitchers who are expected to start will be Freddy Peralta and Cristopher Sanchez.

As a team, the Tampa Bay Rays are notching 4.5 runs per game, which has them at 11th in baseball. They have accounted for 713 runs and have an OBP of .327. The Rays have recorded 219 doubles as a team and have knocked 164 baseballs out of the park. They have earned 678 RBI's as well as 1,359 hits over the course of the season, and their team batting average is .258. Tampa Bay is slugging .402 and have been called out on strikes 1,099 times, while drawing a walk on 497 occasions.

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The Rays have a team ERA of 3.67 over the course of the season (7th in baseball), and the staff has rung up 1,285 hitters. Rays pitchers have surrendered 193 home runs in addition to 627 total runs (6th in baseball). They have walked 390 opposing hitters and their FIP is 4.00 as a unit on the year. Tampa Bay has conceded 1,193 hits (7.7 per 9 innings) and 572 earned runs. Their K/BB ratio is 3.29 and the pitching staff holds a WHIP of 1.13.

The Rays bullpen have a save rate of 75.0% and stepped onto the hill in 189 save situations. They have tallied 57 saves on the season and have missed out on 19 of 76 save chances. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 184 base runners over the course of the season with 33.2% of those players crossing home plate. Rays relief pitchers have stepped onto the hill with runners on 129 times as well as having 157 appearances in high leverage situations. The Rays have dispatched 501 relievers to the hill over the course of the season. The bullpen have notched 112 holds this season (1st in baseball).

The Rays have converted 72.4% of balls in play into outs in their 12,609 innings on the diamond, which ranks them 1st in professional baseball. The Tampa Bay Rays have accumulated 4,203 putouts this year, in addition to 1,242 assists and 89 errors. Their fielding percentage is at .984 which has them ranked 21st in pro baseball, and have accumulated 97 double plays.

Peralta has pitched in 981 innings and has earned 1,192 strikeouts in his career. Peralta (74-44 record in his career) has earned a FIP of 3.53 and he has gone up against 4,049 hitters during his time in the major leagues. His ERA is 3.59 (391 ER's allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.124. He has surrendered 731 base knocks (6.7 hits per 9 innings) and has had 372 walks.

The Phillies have a SLG% of .397 and they earn 4.48 runs per contest (12th in baseball). They have put up 234 doubles, while getting a free base 509 times and scoring 703 runs. Philadelphia has accounted for 180 home runs on the year as well as 682 RBIs. They have been rung up on 1,286 occasions (19th in baseball) and have earned a total of 1,268 hits. The Philadelphia Phillies have a team on-base percentage of .312 as well as a batting average of .241 on the campaign.

The Phillies have a team WHIP of 1.283 in addition to having a FIP of 3.79 as a unit so far this year. They are sitting at 21st in MLB as a staff in total hits relinquished with 1,318. The Philadelphia pitching staff have yielded 672 runs for the year and come in with a team ERA of 4.01 (620 earned runs surrendered). Their K/BB ratio comes in at 9.90 (1,525 strikeouts vs 470 free passes). They have allowed 184 homers and they give up 4.34 runs per 9 innings (10th in the league).

Sitting with 140 save situations, the Phillies have compiled 73 holds in addition to 23 blown saves. Philadelphia has called on relievers to step onto the hill in 65 save opportunities and they have come away with 42 saves. Philadelphia relievers have an inherited score rate of 37.2% out of their 164 inherited base runners. Their relievers have taken the field 155 times in high leverage situations in addition to 118 occasions with runners on base. They are currently ranked 15th in the league holding a save rate of 64.6%, and they have dispatched 514 relief pitchers to the hill this season.

In 12,540 innings played, the Phillies are sitting with a defensive efficiency of 67.9% (28th in the majors). The Philadelphia Phillies have gotten 101 double plays and hold a fielding percentage of .986 (14th in the majors). The Phillies have 1,294 assists, 77 errors and have earned a total of 4,180 putouts for the year.

Sanchez (48-27 mark in his career) holds a 3.16 earned run average while surrendering 8.5 hits per 9 innings. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 4.24 and he has faced 3,023 opposing hitters thus far in his career. He has allowed 258 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.178 and having a FIP of 3.1. So far in his career, Sanchez has surrendered 694 base knocks while tallying 730 punch outs in 735 innings pitched.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Philadelphia (-128)

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