Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, 9/26/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies

Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026

Location: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA

TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia

Odds/Point Spread: Tampa Bay (+106) Philadelphia (-128)

The Tampa Bay Rays (96-63) are en route to Citizens Bank Park on Saturday where they will play the Philadelphia Phillies (87-72). The line on this matchup has the Rays at +106 while the Phillies are sitting at -128. The over/under comes in at 8. The expected starting pitchers will be Griffin Jax and Jose Urquidy.

As a team, the Tampa Bay Rays are recording 4.5 runs/g, which puts them at 11th in the league. They have 719 runs scored while holding a team OBP of .326. The Rays have accounted for 221 two-baggers as a unit and have smacked 165 baseballs out of the park. They have tallied 683 runs batted in as well as 1,374 hits for the season, while their batting average is at .258. Tampa Bay has a slugging rate of .400 and have been called out on strikes 1,116 times, while drawing a walk on 507 occasions.

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Their strikeout to walk ratio is 3.28 and the pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.14. Rays pitchers have allowed 199 long balls and also 642 total runs (7th in the league). Tampa Bay has allowed 1,212 base knocks (7.7 per 9 innings) in addition to 587 earned runs. The Rays have an earned run average of 3.73 this year (8th in the league), and the staff has struck out 1,303 hitters. Their pitching staff has walked 397 batters and their FIP is 4.03 as a team this year.

The Rays have sent 508 relievers to the mound so far this season. The relief pitchers have inherited 188 runners so far this year with 33.0% of those players crossing home plate. The bullpen have a total of 112 holds this year (2nd in the league). Rays pitchers have come into the game with opponents on base 132 times in addition to having 159 appearances in high leverage situations. They have recorded 57 saves for the season and have not converted 20 of 77 chances to save the game. The Rays relief pitchers have compiled a save rate of 74.0% and have come into the game in 190 save situations.

The Tampa Bay Rays have amassed 4,251 putouts this season, in addition to 1,254 assists and 91 errors. Their fielding percentage sits at .984 which ranks 21st in pro baseball, and have a total of 97 double plays. The Rays have converted 72.3% of balls in play into outs out of their 12,753 innings on the field, which ranks them 1st in MLB.

Jax has pitched in 465 innings and has totaled 520 punch outs so far in his pro baseball career. His earned run average is 3.95 (204 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.163. He has conceded 402 base knocks (7.8 hits per 9 innings) with 139 walks. Jax (31-41 win-loss record in his career) has earned a FIP of 3.89 and he has faced 1,932 opposing hitters in the majors.

Philadelphia has compiled 180 long balls for the season as well as 684 RBIs. They have recorded 238 two-baggers, while walking 517 times and scoring 705 runs. The Philadelphia Phillies hold an OBP of .312 and a batting average of .240 on the campaign. The Phillies have a team slugging % of .395 and they tally 4.43 runs per contest (18th in the league). They have been rung up on 1,299 occasions (20th in baseball) and are sitting with 1,278 hits.

The Phillies have a team WHIP of 1.284 and have a FIP of 3.78 as a squad for the year. They currently have a strikeout to walk ratio of 9.90 (1,548 strikeouts vs 477 bases on balls). They are currently ranked 21st in MLB as a staff in total hits surrendered with 1,335. They have relinquished 187 homers and they surrender 4.34 runs per 9 innings (10th in the league). The Philadelphia pitching staff have given up 681 runs on the season while holding an ERA of 4.01 (629 earned runs relinquished).

Philadelphia relief pitchers hold an inherited score rate of 38.0% out of their 166 inherited base runners. Their relievers have taken the field 158 times in high leverage situations and on 119 occasions with runners on base. Sitting with 140 save situations, the Phillies have accumulated 73 holds and 23 blown saves. They are ranked 15th in the league holding a save percentage of 64.6%, and they have sent 520 relief pitchers onto the diamond for the season.

The Philadelphia Phillies have gotten 104 double plays and have earned a fielding percentage of .986 (14th in MLB). The Phillies have racked up 1,314 assists, 78 errors and have a total of 4,234 putouts on the campaign. In their 12,702 innings on the diamond, the Phillies have a defensive efficiency of 67.9% (28th in baseball).

During his career, Urquidy has allowed 375 hits and he has 335 strikeouts in 411 frames. He has conceded 181 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.155 and a FIP of 3.9. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.35 and he has faced 1,695 opposing hitters so far in his MLB career. Urquidy (27-16 career mark) holds a 3.96 ERA while surrendering 8.2 hits per 9 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Philadelphia (-128)

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