Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, 9/27/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies

Date: Sunday, September 27, 2026

Location: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA

TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia

Odds/Point Spread: Tampa Bay (+132) Philadelphia (-160)

The Tampa Bay Rays (96-63) are hitting the road to Citizens Bank Park on Sunday where they will try to defeat the Philadelphia Phillies (87-72). The odds on this game have the Rays at +132 while the Phillies are priced at -160. The over/under has been set at 9. The expected starting pitchers will be Nick Martinez and Zack Wheeler.

As a unit, the Tampa Bay Rays are recording 4.5 runs per contest, which is 11th in MLB. They have a total of 719 runs while holding a team OBP of .326. The Rays have tallied 221 doubles as a squad and have smacked 165 balls out of the park. They have 683 RBI's and 1,374 hits this season, and their batting average is .258. Tampa Bay has a slugging percentage of .400 and have been called out on strikes 1,116 times, while being walked on 507 occasions.

Get all of our MLB Picks

Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 3.28 and the pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.14. Rays pitchers have allowed 199 home runs and also 642 runs in total (7th in baseball). Tampa Bay has yielded 1,212 base hits (7.7 per 9 innings) and 587 earned runs. The Rays have compiled a team ERA of 3.73 so far this season (8th in MLB), and their staff has rung up 1,303 hitters. Their pitching staff has walked 397 hitters and their FIP sits at 4.03 as a team for the season.

Rays bullpen pitchers have come into the game with players on base 132 times as well as having 159 appearances in high leverage situations. The bullpen have earned 112 holds so far this season (2nd in the league). The Rays relief pitchers have earned a save rate of 74.0% and have stepped onto the mound in 190 save situations. They have compiled 57 saves for the season and have blown 20 of their 77 save opportunities. The relievers have inherited 188 base runners so far this year and 33.0% of those players ended up scoring. The Rays have sent 508 relievers to the hill on the campaign.

The Rays have transformed 72.3% of baseballs in play into outs out of their 12,753 innings, ranking them 1st in pro baseball. The Tampa Bay Rays have amassed 4,251 putouts on the campaign, as well as 1,254 assists and 91 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding steady at .984 which puts them in 21st in MLB, and have 97 double plays.

Martinez has taken the mound for 1,117 innings and has accounted for 778 punch outs during his career. His earned run average is 3.96 (492 earned runs allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.265. He has given up 1,099 base hits (8.9 hits per nine innings) with 314 free passes. Martinez (63-64 career win-loss mark) holds a FIP of 3.90 while going up against 4,693 opposing hitters in the majors.

The Phillies have a team slugging % of .395 and they score 4.43 runs per contest (18th in MLB). They have notched 238 doubles, while taking a walk 517 times and scoring 705 runs. Philadelphia has accounted for 180 home runs for the year and 684 runs batted in. They have been called out on strikes on 1,299 occasions (20th in the league) and have earned 1,278 base hits. The Philadelphia Phillies have an OBP of .312 and a team batting average of .240 on the year.

The Phillies have a WHIP of 1.284 in addition to having a FIP of 3.78 as a team so far this season. They rank 21st in baseball as a staff in total hits surrendered with 1,335. The Philadelphia pitching staff have conceded 681 runs over the course of the season and come in with a team ERA of 4.01 (629 earned runs given up). Their strikeout to walk ratio comes in at 9.90 (1,548 strikeouts against 477 walks). They have conceded 187 homers and they concede 4.34 runs per 9 innings (10th in MLB).

With 140 save situations, the Phillies have earned 73 holds and 23 blown saves. Philadelphia has called on relievers to enter the game in 65 save chances and they have walked away with 42 saves. Philadelphia relievers have an inherited score rate of 38.0% out of their 166 inherited runners. Their bullpen pitchers have stepped onto the mound 158 times in high leverage situations and on 119 occasions with base runners. They rank 15th in baseball holding a save percentage of 64.6%, and they have sent 520 relievers onto the diamond for the season.

The Philadelphia Phillies have turned 104 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .986 (14th in pro baseball). The Phillies have accrued 1,314 assists, 78 errors and have a total of 4,234 putouts this season. Out of their 12,702 innings on the diamond, the Phillies hold a defensive efficiency of 67.9% (28th in pro baseball).

Wheeler (126-80 win-loss record in his career) has earned a 3.26 ERA and has surrendered 7.6 hits per 9 innings. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.74 and he has faced 7,708 opposing hitters in his MLB career. He has surrendered a total of 683 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.131 and having a FIP of 3.2. So far in his MLB career, Wheeler has allowed 1,593 base knocks while he has accumulated 2,008 punch outs in 1,884 frames.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Tampa Bay (+132)

Get $60 worth of FREE premium member picks. No Obligation. No Salesman. No Credit Card. Fast Sign up with Instant Access Click Here

Get MLB picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bets by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.