Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction, 5/11/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays

Date: Monday, May 11, 2026

Location: Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON

TV: Sportsnet

Odds/Point Spread: Tampa Bay (+126) Toronto (-152)

The Tampa Bay Rays (25-13) are traveling to Rogers Centre on Monday where they will meet the Toronto Blue Jays (18-21). The moneyline on this matchup has the Rays at +126 while the Blue Jays are at -152. The total has been set at 9. The pitchers who are expected to start are Drew Rasmussen and Kevin Gausman.

Tampa Bay has a slugging % of .373 and have been called out on strikes 269 times, while being walked on 124 occasions. They have recorded 157 RBI's as well as 323 base knocks for the season, while their team batting average is at .254. The Rays have tallied 46 doubles as a team and have knocked 31 balls out of the park. They have a total of 167 runs while holding a team on-base percentage of .327. As a team, the Tampa Bay Rays are putting up 4.4 runs per outing, which is 13th in baseball.

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Their strikeout to walk ratio is 2.45 and their pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.17. Rays pitchers have given up 40 home runs and 150 runs in total (5th in MLB). Tampa Bay has conceded 279 base hits (7.4 per 9 innings) as well as 133 earned runs. The Rays hold a team earned run average of 3.51 this year (5th in the league), and the staff has struck out 294 batters. They have walked 120 opposing batters and their FIP sits at 4.06 as a squad so far this season.

The Rays relief pitchers have a save rate of 80.0% and have entered the game in 51 save situations. They have earned 16 saves so far this year and have blown 4 out of their 20 save chances. The relief pitchers have inherited 46 base runners for the season with 28.3% of them ended up scoring. Rays relief pitchers have gone to the mound with runners on 35 times as well as having 42 appearances in high leverage situations. The Rays have dispatched 121 relievers to the hill so far this year. The relief pitchers have notched 31 holds for the season (3rd in the league).

The Rays have converted 73.1% of baseballs in play into outs out of their 3,072 innings, ranking them 1st in baseball. The Tampa Bay Rays have accumulated 1,024 putouts so far this season, as well as 303 assists and 28 errors. Their fielding rate is holding steady at .979 which puts them in 29th in the majors, and they have turned 21 double plays.

Rasmussen has taken the hill for 496 innings and has 465 K's in his career. Rasmussen (32-18 career mark) has earned a FIP of 2.86 while he has faced 1,987 opposing batters during his time in the majors. His ERA is 2.90 (160 ER's allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.058. He has surrendered 400 hits (7.3 hits per 9 innings) and has had 125 walks.

The Blue Jays hold a slugging percentage of .385 and they have an average of 4.18 runs per contest (21st in baseball). They have recorded 62 two-baggers, while walking 113 times as well as scoring 163 runs. Toronto has tallied 37 home runs over the course of the season as well as 157 RBIs. They have struck out on 260 occasions (30th in the league) and have tallied 334 base hits. The Toronto Blue Jays have accounted for an on-base percentage of .316 in addition to a batting average of .253 on the year.

The Toronto pitching staff have relinquished 170 runs for the season while holding an ERA of 4.04 (154 earned runs relinquished). They have allowed 38 dingers and they allow 4.46 runs per 9 innings (15th in the league). The Blue Jays have a WHIP of 1.294 in addition to having a FIP of 3.67 as a squad on the season. They currently have a strikeout to walk ratio of 9.20 (353 strikeouts against 120 bases on balls). They have a ranking of 19th in the league as a pitching staff in total hits relinquished with 324.

Toronto bullpen pitchers hold an inherited score percentage of 25.4% of 67 inherited base runners. Their relievers have taken the field 44 times in high leverage situations and on 46 occasions with runners on base. With 44 save situations, the Blue Jays have recorded 26 holds and 8 blown saves. They rank 27th in the league with a save rate of 50.0%, and they have sent 146 relievers onto the diamond so far this season.

The Toronto Blue Jays have turned 33 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .981 (28th in baseball). The Blue Jays have accrued 319 assists, 26 errors and have notched a total of 1,031 putouts so far this year. Out of their 3,093 innings on the diamond, the Blue Jays have earned a defensive efficiency of 67.6% (27th in MLB).

During his pro baseball career, Gausman has given up 1,872 hits while he has earned 1,997 strikeouts in 1,957 innings. He has allowed a total of 826 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.234 and having a FIP of 3.7. His strikeout to walk ratio is 3.67 and he has faced 8,171 hitters in his career. Gausman (114-115 career record) is the owner of a 3.80 ERA and has surrendered 8.6 hits per nine innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Tampa Bay (+126)

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