Texas Rangers vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, 3/28/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Texas Rangers vs Philadelphia Phillies

Date: Saturday, March 28, 2026

Location: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA

TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia

Odds/Point Spread: Texas (+162) Philadelphia (-196)

The Texas Rangers (81-81 last year) are on their way to Citizens Bank Park on Saturday where they will attempt to defeat the Philadelphia Phillies (96-66 last season). The odds on this game have the Rangers at +162 and the Phillies are priced at -196. The over/under is 9. The men taking the mound will be Jacob deGrom and Aaron Nola.

The Rangers earned 245 doubles as a squad and hit 175 baseballs out of the stadium. Texas had a slugging rate of .381 and were called out on strikes 1,327 times, while drawing a walk on 486 occasions. As a team, the Texas Rangers recorded 4.2 runs per game, which put them at 22nd in the league. They earned 658 runs batted in as well as 1,275 base knocks last year, and their team batting average was at .234. They had 684 runs scored and held an on-base percentage of .302.

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The Rangers finished with a team ERA of 3.47 in the previous season (1st in the league), and their staff rung up 1,344 batters. Rangers pitchers surrendered 172 home runs and also 605 runs in total (1st in the league). They walked 463 hitters and their FIP was 3.89 as a unit during the previous year. Texas surrendered 1,235 base hits (7.7 per 9 innings) and 557 earned runs. They accumulated a K/BB ratio of 2.90 and their pitching staff had a team WHIP of 1.18.

The Rangers had dispatched 523 relief pitchers to the mound over the course of the prior season. The relief pitchers inherited 260 base runners for the prior year and 28.1% of those players crossed home plate. They had 37 saves for the prior year and missed out on 29 of their 66 save opportunities. The Rangers relief pitchers compiled a save rate of 56.1% and entered the game in 151 save situations. The bullpen notched 80 holds last season (23rd in baseball). Rangers relief pitchers stepped onto the hill with runners on 184 times in addition to having 180 games in high leverage situations.

The Texas Rangers earned a total of 4,329 putouts over the course of last year, as well as 1,364 assists and 51 errors. Their fielding percentage was previously at .991 which had them ranked 1st in professional baseball, and they turned 122 double plays. The Rangers converted 72.0% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 12,987 innings on the field, which had them ranked 1st in pro baseball.

deGrom (96-65 career win-loss record) has earned a FIP of 2.53 while he has gone up against 6,045 hitters in the majors. He has given up 1,173 hits (6.9 hits per 9 innings) with 345 free passes. His ERA is 2.57 (440 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 0.986. deGrom has taken the mound for 1,539 innings and is sitting with 1,851 strikeouts so far in his pro baseball career.

The Philadelphia Phillies accumulated a team OBP of .328 as well as a team batting average of .258 in the previous season. They were called out on strikes on 1,337 occasions (19th in baseball) and earned 1,426 base hits. Philadelphia knocked in 212 long balls over the course of the prior season to go along with 753 RBIs. The Phillies had a team SLG% of .431 and they averaged 4.80 runs per contest (8th in MLB). They notched 268 doubles, while taking a walk 528 times as well as putting up 778 runs.

The Philadelphia pitching staff relinquished 648 runs over the course of last season while having an ERA of 3.79 (607 earned runs relinquished). They gave up 177 home runs and they conceded 4.05 runs per 9 innings (5th in MLB). The Phillies finished with a team WHIP of 1.234 and had a FIP of 3.71 as a squad in the previous season. Their K/BB ratio came in at 9.20 (1,471 strikeouts against 435 bases on balls). They were sitting at 19th in baseball as a pitching staff in total hits conceded with 1,342.

Philadelphia bullpen pitchers held an inherited score percentage of 31.8% of 151 inherited base runners. Their relievers took the field 179 times in high leverage situations and on 106 occasions with runners on base. Wrapping up the year with 160 save situations, the Phillies accrued 83 holds in addition to 27 blown saves. They were ranked 17th in MLB holding a save rate of 63.5%, and they dispatched 506 relievers to the hill last season. Philadelphia called on relief pitchers to take the mound in 74 save opportunities and they converted 47 saves.

The Philadelphia Phillies had 105 double plays and had a fielding percentage of .989 (5th in MLB). The Phillies had 1,383 assists, 62 errors and had 4,321 putouts during the previous year. In their 12,963 innings on the diamond, the Phillies accumulated a efficiency on defense of 69.1% (21st in MLB).

During his pro baseball career, Nola has given up 1,522 hits while he has tallied 1,876 punch outs in 1,715 innings. He has given up a total of 730 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.149 and being the owner of a FIP of 3.8. His K/BB ratio is 4.18 and he has faced 7,039 batters in his pro baseball career. Nola (109-89 career record) has a 3.83 ERA while allowing 8.0 hits per 9 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Texas (+162)

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