Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, 7/25/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox

Date: Saturday, July 25, 2026

Location: Fenway Park in Boston, MA

TV: NESN

Odds/Point Spread: Toronto (+106) Boston (-128)

The Toronto Blue Jays (47-56) are traveling to Fenway Park on Saturday where they will take on the Boston Red Sox (52-49). The moneyline on this matchup has the Blue Jays at +106 while the Red Sox are priced at -128. The total is 9. The pitchers who are expected to start are Dylan Cease and Sonny Gray.

The Blue Jays have tallied 155 two-baggers as a unit and have hit 102 baseballs out of the park. Toronto owns a slugging percentage of .377 and have been called out on strikes 747 times, while being walked on 280 occasions. As a squad, the Toronto Blue Jays are putting up 3.9 runs per outing, which puts them at 30th in baseball. They have tallied 388 runs batted in and 829 base knocks so far this season, and their team batting average is at .241. They have 405 runs while having a team on-base percentage of .303.

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Their strikeout to walk ratio is 2.52 and their pitching staff sits with a WHIP of 1.31. Blue Jays pitchers have yielded 113 home runs and also 466 total runs (18th in MLB). Toronto has yielded 833 hits (8.2 per 9 innings) and also 421 earned runs. The Blue Jays have a team ERA of 4.15 this year (12th in MLB), and their staff has rung up 910 hitters. Their pitching staff has walked 361 opposing players and their FIP sits at 4.00 as a unit so far this year.

The Blue Jays have sent 378 relief pitchers to the mound so far this season. The relievers have inherited 163 base runners this year and 29.4% of those players ended up crossing the plate. The relievers have notched 65 holds on the campaign (5th in the league). Blue Jays pitchers have entered the contest with runners on 111 times as well as having 116 appearances in high leverage situations. They have compiled 31 saves on the year and have missed out on 13 of their 44 save opportunities. The Blue Jays relievers have recorded a save percentage of 70.5% and have entered the game in 112 save situations.

The Blue Jays have converted 69.2% of balls hit into play into outs out of 8,214 innings on the field, which has them sitting at 22nd in MLB. The Toronto Blue Jays are sitting with 2,738 putouts this season, as well as 873 assists and 68 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding at .982 which is 27th in pro baseball, and have a total of 72 double plays.

Cease has taken the ball for 1,119 innings and has tallied 1,386 K's during his MLB career. Cease (71-63 career mark) has earned a FIP of 3.71 while going up against 4,731 hitters during his time in the major leagues. His ERA is 3.77 (469 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.254. He has conceded 928 base knocks (7.5 hits per nine innings) and has 475 walks.

The Boston Red Sox have accounted for an on-base percentage of .314 and a team batting average of .244 on the season. They have struck out on 822 occasions (24th in the league) and are sitting with 823 hits. Boston has a total of 96 home runs on the campaign as well as 408 RBIs. The Red Sox hold a team slugging % of .393 and they score 4.22 runs per contest (22nd in MLB). They have hit 177 doubles, while taking a walk 300 times as well as recording 426 runs.

The Red Sox have a team WHIP of 1.223 and have a FIP of 3.78 as a staff on the year. They are sitting at 9th in baseball as a staff in total hits relinquished with 804. The Boston pitching staff have surrendered 381 runs on the year while having a team ERA of 3.56 (354 earned runs conceded). They currently have a K/BB ratio of 8.60 (857 strikeouts vs 291 free passes). They have allowed 102 home runs and they allow 3.83 runs per 9 innings (3rd in the league).

With 100 save situations, the Red Sox have earned 62 holds and also 9 blown saves. Boston has called on bullpen pitchers to step onto the hill in 36 save chances and they have walked away with 27 saves. Boston bullpen pitchers hold an inherited score rate of 30.5% of 118 inherited runners. Their bullpen pitchers have come in 85 times in high leverage situations and also on 82 occasions with runners on base. They rank 3rd in MLB with a save rate of 75.0%, and they have dispatched 312 relief pitchers onto the field on the season.

The Boston Red Sox have turned 69 double plays and hold a fielding percentage of .987 (10th in MLB). The Red Sox have accrued 864 assists, 45 errors and have a tally of 2,686 putouts during this campaign. Out of their 8,058 innings on the field, the Red Sox hold a defensive efficiency of 70.2% (13th in MLB).

Gray (137-103 mark in his career) holds a 3.53 earned run average and has conceded 7.8 hits per nine innings. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.10 and he has gone up against 8,360 opposing batters in his pro baseball career. He has conceded a total of 791 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.194 and a FIP of 3.5. During his MLB career, Gray has conceded 1,761 base hits while totaling 2,015 punch outs in 2,019 innings pitched.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Parlay's Pundit's Pick: Take Boston (-128) and under 9 runs

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