Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals Prediction, 9/5/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals

Date: Saturday, September 5, 2026

Location: Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, MO

TV: MLB.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Toronto (-130) Kansas City (+110)

The Kansas City Royals (63-78) will compete against the Toronto Blue Jays (70-71) at Kauffman Stadium on Saturday. The moneyline on this matchup has the Blue Jays at -130 and the Royals are priced at +110. The over/under is set at 8.5. The men taking the mound are Max Scherzer and Seth Lugo.

As a squad, the Toronto Blue Jays are knocking in 4.0 runs per contest, which is 29th in the league. They have earned a total of 566 runs while holding a team OBP of .308. The Blue Jays have accrued 226 two-baggers as a team and have knocked 133 balls out of the park. They have accrued 539 runs batted in and 1,169 base knocks on the campaign, while their team batting average is at .246. Toronto has a slugging rate of .381 and have struck out 1,022 times, while taking a walk on 393 occasions.

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The Blue Jays hold a team ERA of 3.92 for the year (9th in the league), and their staff has rung up 1,229 hitters. Blue Jays pitchers have yielded 144 home runs and also 607 total runs (12th in MLB). They have walked 517 opposing players and their FIP comes in at 3.95 as a team this season. Toronto has given up 1,116 hits (8.0 per 9 innings) in addition to 547 earned runs. They have a K/BB ratio of 2.38 and their pitching staff sits with a WHIP of 1.30.

The Blue Jays have sent 523 relievers to the mound for the year. The relievers have inherited 215 base runners for the season with 27.4% of those runners ended up crossing the plate. The bullpen have tallied 91 holds over the course of the season (5th in MLB). Blue Jays pitchers have stepped onto the hill with runners on base 150 times and also have had 176 appearances in high leverage situations. They have recorded 47 saves on the campaign and have blown 15 of their 62 chances to get a save. The Blue Jays relief pitchers have a save rate of 75.8% and have come into the game in 158 save situations.

The Blue Jays have turned 69.9% of baseballs in play into outs out of 11,289 innings, which has them sitting at 13th in MLB. The Toronto Blue Jays have notched a total of 3,763 putouts at this point in the season, in addition to 1,186 assists and 82 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding steady at .984 which ranks 22nd in MLB, and they have turned 95 double plays.

Scherzer has taken the ball for 3,020 innings and has earned 3,535 punch outs in his pro baseball career. His earned run average is 3.27 (1,098 earned runs allowed) and his WHIP is 1.090. He has allowed 2,486 base knocks (7.4 hits per 9 innings) with 805 free passes. Scherzer (223-124 mark in his career) holds a FIP of 3.22 while going up against 12,235 opposing hitters in the major leagues.

The Royals have a slugging percentage of .403 and they average 4.30 runs per contest (21st in the league). They have hit 256 doubles, while taking a walk 444 times as well as putting up 606 runs. Kansas City has compiled 146 HRs over the course of the season to go along with 577 RBIs. They have struck out on 1,102 occasions (27th in MLB) and have 1,174 base knocks. The Kansas City Royals have an on-base percentage of .316 and a team batting average of .248 for the season.

The Royals have a team WHIP of 1.391 and are the owners of a FIP of 4.63 as a squad for the season. Their K/BB ratio sits at 7.50 (1,030 strikeouts vs 508 bases on balls). They are currently ranked 26th in MLB as a staff in total hits surrendered with 1,215. They have allowed 175 homers and they allow 5.02 runs per 9 innings (26th in the league). The Kansas City pitching staff have conceded 691 runs so far this year while having an ERA of 4.71 (648 earned runs relinquished).

With 131 save situations, the Royals have accrued 70 holds in addition to 24 blown saves. Kansas City has had relievers take the mound in 58 save opportunities and they have converted 34 saves. Kansas City bullpen pitchers hold an inherited score rate of 41.5% out of their 142 inherited base runners. Their relief pitchers have taken the field 132 times in high leverage situations and also on 97 occasions with runners on. They rank 21st in MLB with a save percentage of 58.6%, and they have sent 454 relievers onto the diamond on the year.

The Kansas City Royals have turned 122 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .988 (6th in MLB). The Royals have recorded 1,279 assists, 61 errors and have 3,718 putouts on the season. In 11,154 innings on the field, the Royals have a defensive efficiency of 69.9% (14th in pro baseball).

So far in his pro baseball career, Lugo has surrendered 1,059 hits while totaling 1,072 strikeouts in 1,147 frames. He has given up 471 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.207 and a FIP of 3.6. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.30 and he has gone up against 4,760 hitters during his pro baseball career. Lugo (70-55 career record) holds a 3.70 earned run average while allowing 8.3 hits per nine innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Toronto (-130)

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