Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres Prediction, 7/11/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres

Date: Saturday, July 11, 2026

Location: Petco Park in San Diego, CA

TV: Padres.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Toronto (-132) San Diego (+110)

Petco Park is the location where the San Diego Padres (46-47) will try to beat the Toronto Blue Jays (44-49) on Saturday. The line on this matchup has Toronto at -132 and San Diego is priced at +110. The over/under is set at 8.5. The pitchers who are expected to start will be Trey Yesavage and Walker Buehler.

The Blue Jays have compiled 145 doubles as a unit and have smacked 93 baseballs out of the stadium. Toronto has a slugging % of .383 and have been called out on strikes 682 times, while drawing a walk on 254 occasions. As a team, the Toronto Blue Jays are knocking in 4.0 runs per outing, which has them at 28th in MLB. They have accrued 360 runs batted in and 761 hits for the year, while their average at the plate sits at .244. They have earned a total of 376 runs and have an OBP of .305.

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The Blue Jays have a team earned run average of 4.08 this season (12th in baseball), and the staff has struck out 825 batters. Blue Jays pitchers have given up 104 home runs in addition to 411 runs in total (13th in baseball). They have walked 327 opposing hitters and their FIP sits at 4.03 as a team this year. Toronto has conceded 741 base knocks (8.1 per 9 innings) in addition to 374 earned runs. They have earned a K/BB ratio of 2.52 and their pitching staff has a team WHIP of 1.30.

The Blue Jays relief pitchers have compiled a save rate of 70.0% and have come into the game in 102 save situations. They have accumulated 28 saves for the season and have blown 12 of their 40 save opportunities. The relief pitchers have inherited 149 base runners for the year and 26.8% of them crossing home plate. Blue Jays bullpen pitchers have entered the game with runners on 102 times in addition to having 109 appearances in high leverage situations. The Blue Jays have dispatched 343 relievers to the hill on the year. The relief pitchers have notched 59 holds this year (7th in baseball).

The Toronto Blue Jays have a total of 2,474 putouts so far this season, in addition to 770 assists and 60 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding at .982 which has them sitting 27th in pro baseball, and have earned 66 double plays. The Blue Jays have turned 69.6% of balls in play into outs out of their 7,422 innings, which has them sitting 17th in baseball.

Yesavage (5-4 career record) has earned a FIP of 3.26 and he has faced 360 opposing hitters in the majors. He has conceded 60 base hits (6.2 hits per 9 innings) with 39 walks. His earned run average is 3.31 (32 earned runs allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.137. Yesavage has taken the ball for 87 innings and is sitting with 84 punch outs during his pro baseball career.

The San Diego Padres have a team OBP of .300 in addition to a team batting average of .225 on the campaign. They have been called out on strikes on 782 instances (14th in baseball) and have earned a total of 684 base knocks. San Diego has hit 97 home runs on the year to go along with 355 runs batted in. The Padres have a team slugging % of .371 and they earn 3.90 runs per game (30th in baseball). They have put up 137 doubles, while getting a free base 305 times as well as notching 363 runs.

The Padres hold a team WHIP of 1.336 and are the owners of a FIP of 4.22 as a team for the year. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 8.30 (759 strikeouts vs 332 walks). They sit at 19th in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits surrendered with 765. They have surrendered 101 homers and they allow 4.45 runs per 9 innings (12th in the league). The San Diego pitching staff have allowed 406 runs so far this season and come in with a team ERA of 4.20 (383 earned runs given up).

Sitting with 96 save situations, the Padres have accrued 57 holds in addition to 10 blown saves. San Diego has had bullpen pitchers enter the game in 37 save chances and they have earned 27 saves. San Diego bullpen pitchers hold an inherited score percentage of 31.3% out of 160 inherited base runners. Their relievers have stepped onto the mound 102 times in high leverage situations and also on 94 occasions with runners on. They sit at 7th in MLB with a save rate of 73.0%, and they have sent 313 relievers onto the field on the campaign.

The San Diego Padres have gotten 82 double plays and hold a fielding percentage of .990 (2nd in professional baseball). The Padres have accrued 817 assists, 34 errors and are sitting with 2,465 putouts for the season. In 7,395 innings on the diamond, the Padres are sitting with a defensive efficiency of 69.8% (16th in pro baseball).

Buehler (62-34 win-loss record in his career) holds a 3.66 ERA while surrendering 7.9 hits per 9 innings. His K/BB ratio is 3.28 and he has faced 3,842 opposing batters so far in his MLB career. He has allowed 377 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.177 and a FIP of 3.6. Thus far in his career, Buehler has conceded 808 base hits while he has accumulated 926 punch outs in 926 frames.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take San Diego (+110)

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