Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, 5/4/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays

Date: Monday, May 4, 2026

Location: Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL

TV: MLB.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Toronto (-160) Tampa Bay (+132)

The Tampa Bay Rays (20-12) will take on the Toronto Blue Jays (16-17) at Tropicana Field on Monday. The moneyline on this game has the Blue Jays at -160 while the Rays open at +132. The total comes in at 9. The pitchers taking the mound are Eric Lauer and Nick Martinez.

Toronto is slugging .388 and have been called out on strikes 218 times, while taking a walk on 95 occasions. They have 135 runs batted in and 278 hits on the campaign, while their team batting average is at .250. The Blue Jays have recorded 56 doubles as a team and have knocked 32 balls out of the park. They are sitting with 140 runs while having a team OBP of .313. As a squad, the Toronto Blue Jays are scoring 4.2 runs per game, which puts them at 23rd in the league.

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The Blue Jays hold a team earned run average of 4.23 on the campaign (15th in the league), and the staff has rung up 311 batters. Blue Jays pitchers have given up 37 home runs and 153 runs in total (17th in baseball). Their pitching staff has walked 107 opposing hitters and their FIP is 3.88 as a squad over the course of the season. Toronto has allowed 271 base hits (8.3 per 9 innings) as well as 138 earned runs. Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 2.91 and their pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.29.

The Blue Jays have dispatched 125 relievers to the hill on the year. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 58 base runners this year with 24.1% of those players earned a run for their team. The relief pitchers have accumulated 24 holds for the season (8th in the league). Blue Jays relief pitchers have stepped onto the hill with opponents on base 41 times as well as having 40 appearances in high leverage situations. They have tallied 7 saves on the year and have blown 7 of 14 chances to save the game. The Blue Jays relief pitchers have a save percentage of 50.0% and have entered the game in 40 save situations.

The Toronto Blue Jays have amassed 881 putouts for the season, in addition to 263 assists and 23 errors. Their fielding rate sits at .980 which has them sitting 27th in the majors, and have 23 double plays. The Blue Jays have transformed 68.3% of balls hit into play into outs out of 2,643 innings, which has them ranked 26th in MLB.

Lauer has thrown 728 frames and is sitting with 689 K's thus far in his career. Lauer (46-42 career win-loss mark) is the owner of a FIP of 4.14 while he has faced 3,125 opposing hitters during his time in the major leagues. His ERA is 4.20 (340 earned runs allowed) and his WHIP is 1.335. He has allowed 703 hits (8.7 hits per nine innings) with 269 walks.

The Rays hold a team slugging percentage of .380 and they are earning 4.53 runs per outing (14th in baseball). They have hit 43 two-baggers, while walking 108 times and notching 145 runs. Tampa Bay is sitting with 29 home runs over the course of the season to go along with 137 RBIs. They have been rung up on 235 occasions (29th in the league) and have earned a total of 270 base hits. The Tampa Bay Rays have a team OBP of .326 as well as a team batting average of .250 so far this season.

The Tampa Bay pitching staff have surrendered 139 runs this year and come in with a team ERA of 3.86 (123 earned runs surrendered). They have given up 37 long balls and they yield 4.36 runs per 9 innings (13th in the league). The Rays hold a team WHIP of 1.209 and have a FIP of 4.25 as a staff so far this season. Their strikeout to walk ratio comes in at 8.00 (254 strikeouts against 107 free passes). They have a ranking of 5th in the league as a staff in total hits surrendered with 240.

With 42 save situations, the Rays have earned 25 holds and also 4 blown saves. Tampa Bay has had relievers take the mound in 17 save opportunities and they have earned 13 saves. Tampa Bay relievers hold an inherited score percentage of 34.2% out of their 38 inherited runners. Their relief pitchers have come in 37 times in high leverage situations and also on 29 occasions with runners on base. They are ranked 4th in baseball with a save percentage of 76.5%, and they have sent 101 relievers to the hill on the campaign.

In their 2,586 innings on the diamond, the Rays hold a efficiency on defense of 72.7% (2nd in baseball). The Tampa Bay Rays have gotten 16 double plays and have accounted for a fielding rate of .978 (29th in MLB). The Rays have racked up 246 assists, 25 errors and have 862 putouts during this campaign.

During his MLB career, Martinez has given up 963 base hits while he has totaled 694 punch outs in 977 innings. He has given up 441 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.291 and having a FIP of 4.0. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.33 and he has gone up against 4,134 opposing batters during his MLB career. Martinez (50-60 career record) has earned a 4.06 ERA while giving up 8.9 hits per 9 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Tampa Bay (+132)

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