Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, 7/1/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox

Date: Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Location: Fenway Park in Boston, MA

TV: NESN

Odds/Point Spread: Washington (+120) Boston (-144)

Fenway Park is the site where the Boston Red Sox (37-46) will attempt to defeat the Washington Nationals (43-43) on Wednesday. The line on this matchup has the Nationals at +120 while the Red Sox are coming in at -144. The over/under comes in at 8.5. The expected starting pitchers are Andrew Alvarez and Payton Tolle.

Washington is slugging .421 and have been rung up 720 times, while being walked on 279 occasions. They have 429 RBI's in addition to 723 base knocks over the course of the season, while their team batting average comes in at .245. The Nationals have hit 147 two-baggers as a unit and have knocked 113 balls out of the stadium. They are sitting with 452 runs scored while holding a team OBP of .318. As a squad, the Washington Nationals are putting up 5.3 runs per contest, which has them at 2nd in MLB.

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The Nationals hold a team earned run average of 4.71 on the year (25th in baseball), and their staff has struck out 671 hitters. Nationals pitchers have yielded 123 long balls in addition to 450 runs in total (29th in the league). Their pitching staff has walked 304 opposing hitters and their FIP sits at 4.80 as a unit so far this year. Washington has conceded 769 base hits (9.0 per 9 innings) as well as 404 earned runs. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 2.21 and the pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.39.

The Nationals have dispatched 275 relief pitchers to the mound on the year. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 124 runners for the season and 46.8% of them ended up scoring. The bullpen have a total of 49 holds this year (12th in the league). Nationals bullpen pitchers have come into the game with runners on 84 times in addition to having 97 appearances in high leverage situations. They have accumulated 26 saves on the campaign and have not converted 25 of their 51 save opportunities. The Nationals bullpen have earned a save rate of 51.0% and have come into the game in 105 save situations.

The Washington Nationals have notched a total of 2,315 putouts this season, in addition to 771 assists and 68 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding steady at .978 which puts them in 30th in MLB, and have accumulated 65 double plays. The Nationals have turned 69.2% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 6,945 innings on the field, which has them sitting 22nd in the majors.

Alvarez has taken the hill for 59 frames and has accounted for 62 strikeouts thus far in his career. His ERA is 3.04 (20 earned runs allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.349. He has allowed 55 base knocks (8.3 hits per 9 innings) and has had 25 walks. Alvarez (2-2 career record) is the owner of a FIP of 2.99 and he has gone up against 255 hitters in the majors.

The Red Sox have a team slugging percentage of .386 and they earn 4.02 runs per contest (27th in baseball). They have recorded 146 doubles, while walking 242 times and racking up 334 runs. Boston has tallied 73 home runs so far this season to go along with 320 runs batted in. They have been rung up on 675 occasions (22nd in MLB) and have accounted for 677 base knocks. The Boston Red Sox have accumulated a team OBP of .312 as well as a batting average of .244 on the campaign.

The Red Sox hold a team WHIP of 1.239 and have a FIP of 3.85 as a pitching staff so far this season. Their strikeout to walk ratio comes in at 8.70 (705 strikeouts against 241 walks). They come in at 9th in baseball as a pitching staff in total hits conceded with 666. They have allowed 87 HR's and they concede 4.01 runs per 9 innings (5th in MLB). The Boston pitching staff have conceded 326 runs this season while holding a team ERA of 3.69 (300 earned runs surrendered).

With 74 save situations, the Red Sox have 46 holds and 9 blown saves. Boston has had bullpen pitchers take the mound in 27 save opportunities and they have earned 18 saves. Boston relievers have an inherited score rate of 30.5% of 95 inherited base runners. Their bullpen pitchers have come in 70 times in high leverage situations in addition to 65 occasions with runners on base. They rank 13th in MLB with a save rate of 66.7%, and they have sent 251 relievers onto the diamond this season.

The Boston Red Sox have turned 49 double plays and have earned a fielding percentage of .986 (14th in MLB). The Red Sox have accrued 694 assists, 40 errors and have a total of 2,197 putouts for the season. In 6,591 innings played, the Red Sox are sitting with a efficiency on defense of 70.0% (15th in baseball).

In his career, Tolle has allowed 71 hits while he has totaled 88 strikeouts in 87 innings pitched. Tolle (4-6 record in his career) is the owner of a 3.41 earned run average while allowing 7.3 hits per 9 innings. He has surrendered 33 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.135 and having a FIP of 3.4. His strikeout to walk ratio is 3.14 and he has gone up against 359 batters during his pro baseball career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Washington (+120)

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