Boston College Eagles Football Preview 2021: Season Win Total Picks, Odds and Predictions
Phil O'Brien Watch List candidate Phil Jurkovec will look to lead his Boston College Eagles squad to another improved season in 2021. They are returning a slew of starters from the previous season which has them looking like contenders in the ACC.
The Eagles had 4,245 yards in total for the prior season. Offensively they maintained an average of 101.7 yards on the ground, which was 118th in the country. Boston College earned 23 passing touchdowns and 11 touchdowns on the ground. Regarding getting in the endzone, the Boston College Eagles held an average of 27.8 points per game.
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Regarding passing yards, the Eagles gave up 2,698 yards which had them ranked 117th in the country. They allowed 4.7 yards per run and 172.0 rushing yards per game last year. They allowed 18 touchdowns through the air and 21 running touchdowns. For the year, they conceded 1,892 rushing yards through 11 outings. They allowed 417.3 yards per game ranking them 84th in the nation. The Eagles were sitting in 72nd in college football regarding team defense, allowing 28.4 PPG.
For his collegiate career, Jurkovec has passed for 1,703 yards with 16 touchdowns and 6 picks. Over the course of his time in college, he has taken off and run 68 different times totaling 282 rushing yards. His QB rating is 165.9 with a TD percentage of 8.8% and an interception rate of 3.3%. He is averaging 94.6 yards per outing. Phil Jurkovec has completed 118 of his career 182 passes for a completion percentage of 64.8%.
The over/under for the Boston College Eagles sits at 7 wins. We’re looking at -130 on the over and +110 on the under. I’m going to recommend a play on the over for the 2021 season for the Eagles.
In my six sets of power ratings, 5 of the 6 have BC winning at least 8 games while the other one has them winning 7 games. Again, when I bet overs in football, I don’t want that half game. I want to have a game that is right on like this with 7 games. Worst case scenario for me says BC wins 7 games and then we get our money back. However, I do expect Boston College to win over 7 games this season and there are a couple of reasons why.
The Eagles have 9 starters returning on offense and 8 starters returning on defense. Their quarterback, Phil Jurkovec is a heck of a player and was recently named to the Davey O’Brien National Quarterback Award Watch List. Along with head coach Jeff Hafley, the Eagles have changed from a plodding run first program to a team that can put up major points with their pass-happy attack. To help Jurkovec, BC returns wide receiver Zay Flowers among others. Last season, Flowers had 7 receptions of 40+ yards and caught 9 touchdown passes for BC. So again, it’s going to be a high-powered attack in which they’ll use the passing game a great deal, making defensive backfields cover all game. Defenses will have to put pressure on Jurkovec, which won’t be easy because of their stout offensive line.
On defense, Boston College jumped no less than 52 spots in a positive direction when it comes to total yards given up on defense. As mentioned previously, they are returning 8 players on defense. They’re going to be a little better against the past, but I also believe they’ll continue to improve in the secondary just like they did last season over the course of the year. They made a huge jump in team defense last season, and we believe they should continue to improve.
BC point spreads are going to equate to a 90% or better chance of winning each of their first three games. The fourth game is against Missouri in which I have the Eagles favored by 4. With that said, I think they’ll take that game to start the season 4-0. They’ll likely lose their next game at Clemson, and they’ll likely lose at Louisville two weeks later. Virginia Tech and NC State look like virtual toss-ups. Even if they lose all 4 of those games (including the toss-ups), I’ve got BC going 8-4 if they win the rest of their games, and I’ve got them favored to do just that. I think we’re going to see 7-5 at the very worst, but I think they’ll go 8-4 at minimum.
Last season, they missed an 8-3 record by a total of 8 points. They lost to North Carolina by 2 and lost to Clemson by only 6 points. That is how close they were to 8 wins last season. Overall, the schedule is easier in 2021 and they’ll be a better team this season on both sides of the ball.
Scott's Pick: Take Over 7 Wins for Boston College
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