Yankees at Twins Picks and MLB Betting Odds
by Alan Matthews - 7/1/2013
I don't like the New York Yankees, but it won't cloud my judgment. They are of course the Notre Dame football or Duke basketball or Dallas Cowboys of Major League Baseball. Sportsbooks fall in love with them too, as bettors take the brand name over the talent. You can make a lot of money betting against New York, especially this year. Thus it gives me great pleasure to see all the sniping between Alex Rodriguez – easily the most overpaid athlete in history and maybe the most scorned, although kudos for bagging a model during a playoff game last year while benched – and GM Brian Cashman.
Have you ever heard a general manager call out a player publicly like Cash did when he told A-Rod to "shut the f**k up" when A-Rod said he was cleared to play? The official team doctor had not done so. Now you hear reports Rodriguez just wants to get back to show he CAN'T play physically and get the rest of his contract before MLB suspends him for 100 games and costs him some $14 million or so. The Yanks would love a suspension (they wouldn’t have to pay him then), while an injury retirement would have insurance pay 80 percent of the full deal. For what it's worth, Cashman begged ownership not to give A-Rod that stupid 10-year, $275 million deal. When will teams learn?
No A-Rod. Still no Derek Jeter - who seems to look better by the day with Rodriguez's drama. Mark Teixeira is now out for the season. He and A-Rod will be paid almost $48 million next year. Curtis Granderson is still out. C.C. Sabathia can’t get it going. Ratings and attendance are down. Does anyone feel sorry for the Yanks? I am smiling...yet still impartial. Because money is money.
Yankees at Twins Betting Story Lines
The Minnesota Twins are in an interesting position. They were only six games out of the A.L. Central lead entering Sunday and 7.5 out of a wild card slot. They have one of the best farm systems in baseball. So should we buy or sell? I am guessing sell.
Former MVP Justin Morneau might fetch something decent, although his power stroke is gone. It's time for the Twins to move another former MVP, Joe Mauer, to first base or DH full-time. With Tex out for the season, Morneau would be a great fit for the Yankees as he's a free agent after this season.
Minnesota is scheduled to start lefty Scott Diamond (5-7, 5.40) on Monday. He started the season well but has clearly been figured out. Diamond has a 5.74 ERA in June and has allowed at least four runs in each of his past four starts, three of which the Twins have lost. In his last nine starts, Diamond has lasted more than six innings once. He has pitched four career innings against New York with an 11.25 ERA. Robinson Cano, about the only Yankees star who is healthy (and if they give him $200 million I will laugh), has a triple and RBI in two at-bats off Diamond.
New York is scheduled to start 41-year-old lefty Andy Pettitte (5-6, 4.22). That he's the team's third-most important starter pretty much tells you all you need to know: These are not the George Steinbrenner Yankees. The franchise wants to stay under the tax threshold next year. Pettitte already seems to be wearing down. The Yanks have lost his past three starts and he has allowed 13 runs in that stretch. He's 12-5 with a 3.32 ERA in 22 career starts against Minnesota. Joe Mauer is hitting .300 with a homer and three RBI in 20 at-bats off Pettitte. Morneau is at .263.
Yankees at Twins Betting Odds and Trends
At BetOnline, the line opened with both at -105 and the over at 9, with the under a -120 favorite. All trends entering Sunday: New York is 31-43-6 over/under (13-22-4 on the road) and 41-39 on the run line. Minnesota is 34-41-2 O/U (19-20 at home) and 44-33 on the run line.
New York is 0-5 in its past five against lefty starters. It is 10-1 in its past 11 against the AL Central. Minnesota is 3-10 in Diamond's past 13 home starts. It is 1-4 in his past five series openers. The under is 13-1-2 in New York's past 16 road games against lefty starters. The under is 8-1 in Minnesota's past nine series openers. The over is 8-2-2 in Diamond's past 12 series-opening starts. The over is 4-0-2 in the past six meetings. New York has won 39 of the past 52 overall.
Yankees at Twins Betting Prediction
Monday's game is the first of a four-game series and the last series away from Yankee Stadium for the Bombers before the break; New York hosts Minnesota for three to close the first half. The Yankees won four of seven matchups a year ago, two of three at Target Field. The Yanks have owned the Twins, but New York had to play the Sunday night ESPN game and then travel. That's enough for me. Take the Twins and the under in the pitcher-friendly Target Field.
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