Georgetown at Villanova Picks and NCAA Basketball Odds
by Trevor Whenham - 3/6/2013
The Villanova Wildcats are absolutely desperate for a win here. They have some impressive wins on the year — Louisville, Syracuse and Marquette. At 18-12 and 9-8 in the Big East, though, they just haven’t yet done enough to secure a spot in the NCAA Tournament field. They are on the bubble, and they are probably on the outside of it right now. They blew two chances last week. Against Pitt they never trailed in the second half but let the Panthers tie it up late and lost in overtime. They lost at Seton Hall, too. Now they are at home in a game that is unquestionably a must win. A win here would likely be enough — as long as they don’t embarrass themselves in the Big East Tournament. A loss, though, would be the end of the line unless they shocked the world and won at least two Big East tourney games.
Georgetown already has a bye to the quarterfinals of the Big East Tournament wrapped up, but they have a lot more to play for here. With 11 straight wins and seven wins against RPI Top-50 teams, they are a very attractive team to the selection committee. If the bracket were set today they would likely be a No. 1. Now they just need to maintain that momentum. A loss here would really hurt.
Georgetown at Villanova Betting storylines
If Villanova wants to win, they are going to have to find a way to slow down Georgetown’s sophomore forward Otto Porter. He is the biggest reason that the Hoyas have completely exploded in conference play. He has been named Big East Player of the Week each of the last three weeks, and he is averaging 19.7 points per game during the win streak. He is a contender for National Player of the Year and is a total beast. If he has a big day then the Hoyas will win.
The Hoyas need to be particularly disciplined in this one because the Wildcats are the best team in the whole country at getting to the free throw line. They average more than 26 free throws per game, and that’s a big reason why they have had the wins they have. If the Hoyas can stay out of foul trouble then they should be fine. That’s easier said than done for the Hoyas’ team, though. On the flip side, Villanova’s discipline needs to be centered on shot selection. Georgetown is very good at forcing bad shots. Villanova isn’t a great shooting team, so they really need to take control and show patience.
Pace is going to dictate the outcome here as well. Villanova likes to move the ball reasonably quickly. They aren’t crazy, but they play with pace. Georgetown doesn’t — or more accurately, they prefer not to. They aren’t glacial, but they like to take their time. So far, though, Georgetown has done a much better job playing against higher-tempo teams than Villanova has slowed down against slower teams. Cincinnati, Notre Dame and Pitt are all Big East teams that slow it down, and Villanova is 0-4 against those teams.
One thing that makes this one interesting for the Wildcats is rebounding. They are a very good defensive rebounding team. Georgetown is not good on offensive rebounding. That would seem to give the Wildcats an edge. The one consideration, though, is that Georgetown doesn’t rebound their misses well largely because they don’t try to. Because of their pace focus, they prefer to get back on defense and avoid transition points. If Villanova can maximize this advantage then their tournament dreams still live.
Georgetown at Villanova NCAA Basketball Odds and Betting Trends
Georgetown is 9-2 ATS during their 11 game winning streak. Villanova is a strong 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games and 7-3 ATS in their last 10. Seven of the last 10 meetings between the teams have gone “under” the total.
Georgetown at Villanova Picks and Betting Predictions
I believe in Georgetown. Otto Porter is playing great, the team is deep, they can control the game, and they are focused and dialed in right now. Villanova has shown they just aren’t quite good enough, and that will continue here. They are very tough at home, but they have a real talent deficit, and that will be the difference. I’d take Georgetown if I had to give up a few points, so they are a total no-brainer here when I get a point.
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