Louisville at Villanova Picks and College Basketball Odds
by Dave Schwab - 1/22/2013
The Louisville Cardinals will be going for their 17th win of the season this Tuesday night when they square off against the Villanova Wildcats at the Pavilion in this Big East Conference matchup. Game time for this conference clash is set for 8 p.m. (ET), and the game will be available on ESPN3.
The Cardinals stay at the top of the major polls was short-lived after this past Saturday’s 70-68 loss to No.3 Syracuse as seven-point home favorites that sent them tumbling to No.5 in the latest AP Poll. They are now 16-2 straight up on the year and 10-8 against the spread. The total went “over” the 135-point line against the Orange after staying “under” in their previous three games.
It has been an up-and-down ride for Villanova as of late after a solid seven-game winning streak gave way to three-straight conference losses, including a 69-66 setback to Providence as a 2.5-point road underdog this past Saturday. It is now 11-7 SU and 9-5-1 ATS with the total staying under in six of its last seven games with a posted line.
Louisville at Villanova Betting Storylines
Louisville is still ranked 35th in the nation in scoring with an average of 76.4 points a game, but it has been in a bit of a scoring drought since the first week in January with an average of just 69.5 points in its last four games. The team is shooting 45.4 percent from the field and just 32.7 percent from three-point range. It is averaging 38.2 rebounds a game, and defensively it is holding its opponents to a stingy 57.2 points a game.
The team’s overall success still revolves heavily around the play of Russ Smith. He leads the team in scoring with 19.3 points a game. While he has not always been the most accurate shooter with a field goal percentage of 42.3 and a 33-percent conversion rate from beyond the arc, he is hitting close to 80 percent of his attempts from the foul line. Peyton Siva and Chane Behanan are each averaging more than 11 points a game, with Siva leading the way in assists (5.7) and Behanan adding another 7.7 rebounds a game.
Villanova appeared to be on its way to making some noise in the Big East for the first time in a couple of years, but a 2-0 start has given way to a 2-3 SU record in conference play. It is averaging close to 70 points a game, but it managed only 61 points in a loss to Syracuse and a woeful 43 points in a double-digit loss to Pitt on Jan.16. As a whole, the team is now shooting just over 40 percent from the field and 33.4 percent from three-point range.
The Wildcats have four players averaging over nine points a game, and their leading scorer, JayVaughn Pinkston, is averaging13.3 points while shooting 49 percent from the floor and 36 percent from beyond the arc. There is no dominant big man on this team as five different players are each pulling down over four rebounds a game. Mouphtaou Yarou leads this category with 5.9 boards a game. Villanova’s defense is giving up 67.1 points a game to its opponents.
Louisville at Villanova Betting Odds and Trends
Louisville has been opened by BetOnline as an 11.5-point road favorite with the over/under line at 135.5.
The Cardinals are 7-2 ATS in their last nine Big East games and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss. The total has stayed under in 10 of their last 13 games against the conference.
The Wildcats are 11-26-1 ATS in their last 38 games against the conference and 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 home games. The total has stayed under in five of their last six Big East games.
Head-to-head, the home team has won three of the last four meetings both SU and ATS, with the total going over in the last three games. Louisville comes into this matchup having won four of the last six meetings SU and holding a 6-2 edge ATS in the last eight.
Louisville at Villanova Predictions
The Cardinals are not about to slip against Villanova after a tough loss to Syracuse, especially in light of falling one game behind the Orange in the race for the Big East regular season title. Look for Louisville to cruise in this game against the overmatched Wildcats as it easily wins to cover the 11.5-point spread.
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