Liberty Flames vs Dayton Flyers Prediction, 12/20/2025 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Liberty Flames vs Dayton Flyers

Date: Saturday, December 20, 2025

Location: UD Arena in Dayton, OH

TV: ESPN+

The Dayton Flyers (9-3) are hosting the Liberty Flames (7-3) at UD Arena on Saturday.

The Liberty Flames faced off with Midway and took home the win by a score of 95-57 in their last contest. Liberty finished with a 62.1% field goal percentage (36 of 58) and converted 12 out of their 28 three-point attempts. From the charity stripe, the Flames made 11 of their 17 tries for a percentage of 64.7%. When talking about rebounding, they earned 30 with 4 of them being of the offensive variety. They also dished out 22 assists for the game in addition to forcing 13 turnovers and earning 11 steals. In relation to the defense, Liberty allowed the other team to go 41.8% from the floor on 23 out of 55 shooting. Midway dished out 11 dimes and had 4 steals for the matchup. Additionally, Midway grabbed 21 rebounds (2 offensive, 19 defensive), but wasn't able to record a rejection. Midway ended up shooting 66.7% at the free throw line by burying 4 of 6 shots. They also buried 7 of 22 attempts from beyond the arc. In relation to fouls, the Flames ended up finishing with 9 and Midway accumulated 12 fouls.

Josh Smith is someone who was a major contributor for this game. He scored 14 points on 5 out of 6 shooting. He saw the court for 16 minutes and collected 4 rebounds. He finished the contest at 83.3% from the field and also dished out 1 assist.

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Liberty heads into this matchup with a win-loss mark of 7-3 this year. They cough up possession 9.1 times per contest and as a team are committing 14.5 personal fouls on a nightly basis. As a unit, Liberty is collecting 31.9 boards per game and has 186 assists on the season, which has them ranked 76th in college hoops in terms of passing the rock. The Flames are shooting 41.0% on 3-point shots (118 of 288) and 62.9% from the charity stripe. They are averaging 81.8 points per game (105th in Division 1) while connecting on 53.7% from the field.

On defense, the Flames are able to force 11.7 turnovers on a nightly basis and they draw 15.4 personal fouls. They concede 33.8% on shots from downtown and they rank 32nd in college in PPG allowed (65.7). The Flames are giving up a FG percentage of 43.0% (241 of 560) and they surrender 31.5 boards per game as a team. They are 45th in college in giving up assists to their opponents with 117 surrendered on the season.

In their last game, the Dayton Flyers walked away with a victory by a final of 97-69 when they played Florida State. In reference to rebounding, Dayton allowed Florida State to snag 34 in all (12 on the offensive glass). They finished the game shooting 29.6% from downtown by going 8 of 27 and ended up shooting 19 of 27 from the free throw line (70.4%). The Flyers permitted Florida State to bury 21 of their 58 attempts from the field which gave them a shooting percentage of 36.2% in this contest. Overall, the Flyers finished 25 for 51 from the field which had them shooting 49.0%. Pertaining to 3-point attempts, Dayton converted 7 out of 23 tries (30.4%). They were able to knock down 40 of those for a percentage of 85.1%. Florida State earned 30 fouls for this game which took the Flyers to the free throw line for a total of 47 shots. They coughed up the ball 11 times, while earning 11 steals for the matchup. The Flyers snagged 29 defensive boards and 6 offensive rebounds for a total of 35 in the matchup.

Javon Bennett ended up having an impact for the Flyers for the matchup. He totaled 25 points in his 35 mins of playing time and tallied 2 dimes for this contest. He converted 5 out of 14 for the matchup for a field goal rate of 35.7%, and added 4 rebounds.

Dayton has a win-loss record of 9-3 this year. When it comes to executing on offense, the Flyers are connecting on 46.8% from the field, which ranks 125th in the country. Dayton has totaled 974 points so far this year (81.2 per contest) and they snag 33.6 boards per game. They are dishing out assists 15.1 times per contest (150th in the nation) and they lose possession by turning the ball over 11.9 times per contest. The Flyers are responsible for committing 16.8 personal fouls every game and they go 72.9% from the charity stripe.

The Flyers defensively are ranked 123rd in D-1 in PPG allowed with 70.8. They are forcing their opponents into 17.7 TO's per game and allow teams to shoot 43.4% from the floor (183rd in D-1). The Dayton defense concedes 37.7% on shots from 3-point land (103 of 273) and opponents are making 70.4% of their free throw attempts. They concede 12.4 assists and 35.2 rebounds every game, ranking them 117th and 211th in those defensive categories.

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Dayton

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