Cal Poly Mustangs vs UC San Diego Tritons Prediction, 2/28/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Cal Poly Mustangs vs UC San Diego Tritons

Date: Saturday, February 28, 2026

Location: LionTree Arena in San Diego, CA

TV: ESPN+

The Cal Poly Mustangs (13-16) are traveling to LionTree Arena on Saturday where they will meet the UC San Diego Tritons (20-9).

The Cal Poly Mustangs stepped onto the hardwood against Long Beach State and took home the win by a score of 102-92 in their last contest. Cal Poly finished the contest having earned a 46.6% field goal percentage (34 out of 73) and knocked down 13 of 37 three-point attempts. At the free throw line, the Mustangs made 21 of 22 attempts for a rate of 95.5%. In reference to hauling in boards, they compiled a total of 37 with 9 of them being offensive. They also doled out 14 assists in the matchup in addition to forcing the opposition into 7 turnovers and having 5 steals. In the matter of the defense, Cal Poly allowed the other team to shoot 46.6% from the floor on 34 out of 73 shooting. Long Beach State doled out 16 assists and had 5 steals in the matchup. Furthermore, Long Beach State grabbed 29 rebounds (5 offensive, 24 defensive), but didn't notch a block. Long Beach State finished the game at 88.2% when shooting free throws by converting 15 of 17 tries. They also converted 9 of their 27 shots from beyond the arc. When it comes to personal fouls, the Mustangs ended up with 15 while Long Beach State recorded 20 personal fouls.

Hamad Mousa is one guy who was a factor in the game. He recorded 29 points on 8 of 14 shooting. He was on the court for 28 mins played and also collected 6 boards. He finished 57.1% from the field but wasn't able to get an assist.

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Cal Poly will play this contest with a record of 13-16 so far this season. They turn it over 15.6 times per contest and as a team they commit 19.4 personal fouls per contest. As a unit, Cal Poly is collecting 37.8 boards per contest and has totaled 383 assists on the campaign, which has them ranked 230th in D-1 in terms of passing. The Mustangs are shooting 33.8% on 3-point shots (317 of 939) and 78.3% from the free throw line. They are averaging 82.2 pts per game (57th in the country) while connecting on 43.6% from the floor.

On the defensive end, the Mustangs are forcing 12.8 turnovers per game while drawing 20.1 fouls. They are conceding 34.9% on 3-point attempts and they are 360th in college in points per game from their opponents (85.2). The Mustangs are allowing an opponent shooting percentage of 45.8% (867 of 1,894) and they surrender 37.5 boards per game as a team. They are currently ranked 326th in college hoops in giving up assists to the opposition with 453 surrendered on the campaign.

When they last stepped on the court, the UC San Diego Tritons took home the win by a final score of 84-72 when they played CSU Bakersfield. When it comes to how they attacked the glass, UC San Diego allowed CSU Bakersfield to get 22 in total (3 offensive). They finished 14.3% from 3-point land via 3 of 21 and finished the game at 25 out of 32 from the free throw line (78.1%). The Tritons permitted CSU Bakersfield to convert 22 of their 49 tries from the floor which left them with a shooting percentage of 44.9% in this matchup. At the conclusion of this game, the Tritons finished 26 for 52 from the floor which gave them a rate of 50.0%. When discussing shooting from beyond the arc, UC San Diego converted 8 out of 22 tries (36.4%). They were able to knock down 24 of them for a percentage of 68.6%. CSU Bakersfield had 20 personal fouls in this game which took the Tritons to the charity stripe for a total of 35 shots. They also gave up possession of the ball 12 times, while earning 9 steals for this game. The Tritons were able to collect 23 defensive boards and 10 offensive boards for a total of 33 for this game.

Hudson Mayes ended up having an impact for the Tritons for the contest. He made 6 of 14 for the game for a field goal percentage of 42.9%, and tallied 7 rebounds. He earned 21 points in his 32 minutes on the hardwood and had 2 dimes for the game.

UC San Diego has a mark of 20-9 on the campaign. The Tritons have committed 16.3 fouls per game and they connect on 69.1% from the free throw line. They are earning an assist 14.8 times per contest (121st in the nation) and they are giving up possession 11.5 times per game. UC San Diego has 2,216 points for the season (76.4 per game) and they snag 37.3 rebounds per contest. On the offensive side of the court, the Tritons are shooting 45.9% from the floor, which is 138th in the country.

The Tritons on the defensive end are ranked 83rd in college in points per game surrendered with 70.3. They are forcing 11.9 TO's per game and have allowed teams to shoot 41.5% from the floor (50th in the country). The UC San Diego defense allows 32.6% on shots from distance (236 of 723) and their opponents are knocking down 70.6% of their foul shots. They have surrendered 13.5 assists and 35.4 boards per contest, ranking them 198th and 247th in Division 1.

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Cal Poly

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