Samford Bulldogs vs Mercer Bears Prediction, 2/21/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Samford Bulldogs vs Mercer Bears

Date: Saturday, February 21, 2026

Location: Hawkins Arena in Macon, GA

TV: ESPN+

Hawkins Arena is the site where the Mercer Bears (17-10) will try to defeat the Samford Bulldogs (15-12) on Saturday.

The Samford Bulldogs played East Tennessee State and notched a win by a score of 82-72 in their last game. Samford walked away from the contest having earned a 41.5% field goal percentage (22 out of 53) and buried 7 of 24 3-point shots. At the free throw line, the Bulldogs buried 31 of their 40 attempts for a rate of 77.5%. In terms of grabbing boards, they earned 37 with 7 of them being of the offensive sort. They also recorded 15 dimes for this contest as well as creating 11 turnovers and getting 7 steals. Regarding defense, Samford allowed their opponent to shoot 41.0% from the floor on 25 out of 61 shooting. East Tennessee State totaled 15 dimes and had 7 steals in this matchup. Additionally, East Tennessee State pulled down 34 rebounds (8 offensive, 26 defensive), but finished the game with no rejections. East Tennessee State walked away from this one shooting 77.3% when shooting free throws by knocking down 17 of their 22 shots. They also converted 5 of 20 tries from 3-point land. In the matter of personal fouls, the Bulldogs finished with 14 and East Tennessee State recorded 27 personal fouls.

Dylan Faulkner is one guy who was a factor for the contest. He finished shooting 55.6% from the floor and also distributed 1 assist. He played 35 mins and also snagged 10 boards. He ended up walking away with 24 points on 10 out of 18 shooting.

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Samford heads into this game with a record of 15-12 so far this season. They are turning it over 9.0 times per game and as a group they commit 16.1 fouls on a nightly basis. As a unit, Samford is collecting 36.5 rebounds per game and has accumulated 400 assists so far this year, which has them ranked 113th in D-1 in terms of passing. The Bulldogs are hitting 34.5% on three-point shots (252 of 730) and 68.3% from the charity stripe. They average 78.3 points per game (132nd in the country) while hitting 44.6% from the field.

On the defensive end, the Bulldogs are forcing 9.3 turnovers per game while drawing 20.3 fouls. They are relinquishing 35.1% from 3-point land while they are 218th in college in opponents PPG (74.8). The Bulldogs defense is giving up a FG percentage of 44.0% (717 of 1,630) and they concede 36.0 rebounds per game as a team. They are ranked 115th in college hoops in allowing assists to their opponents with 335 surrendered on the season.

When they last stepped on the hardwood, the Mercer Bears got the win with a final of 70-54 when they faced The Citadel. The Bears corralled 19 defensive rebounds and 7 offensive rebounds totaling 26 for the matchup. They coughed up the ball 12 times, while getting 7 steals for this game. The Citadel was called for 19 fouls for this game which took the Bears to the charity stripe for 18 tries. They were able to convert 11 of them for a percentage of 61.1%. When talking about shooting from distance, Mercer converted 9 of their 17 tries (52.9%). When the final whistle blew, the Bears walked away from this one shooting 25 for 48 from the floor which gave them a percentage of 52.1%. The Bears allowed The Citadel to bury 18 out of their 53 attempts from the field which left them with a rate of 34.0% in the game. They shot 28.0% from three-point range via 7 out of 25 and ended up going 11 of 12 at the free throw line (91.7%). When talking about attacking the glass, Mercer allowed The Citadel to collect 28 in total (9 on the offensive glass).

Baraka Okojie pitched in for the Bears for the matchup. He racked up 22 points in his 37 mins on the court and had 6 assists for this game. He made 6 out of 11 for the game for a field goal rate of 54.5%, and accounted for 5 rebounds.

Mercer has a record of 17-10 so far this season. The Bears are responsible for committing 15.3 fouls per contest and they hit 73.9% from the free throw line. They are dishing out assists 14.3 times per contest (162nd in college) and they are turning it over 10.7 times per game. Mercer has earned 2,238 pts this year (82.9 per contest) and they pull down 39.2 rebounds per game. As an offensive team, the Bears are hitting on 45.3% from the field, which is 174th in the nation.

The Bears on defense are ranked 197th in the nation in points allowed per game with 74.3. They are able to force 13.3 TO's every game and allow teams to shoot 42.4% from the field (85th in Division 1). The Mercer defense gives up 33.8% on shots from distance (243 of 719) and their opponents are connecting on 72.9% of their shots from the free throw line. They concede 12.7 dimes and 36.5 rebounds per game, which is ranked 118th and 298th in those categories.

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Mercer

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