SMU Mustangs vs Louisville Cardinals Prediction, 3/11/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: SMU Mustangs vs Louisville Cardinals

Date: Wednesday, March 11, 2026

Location: Spectrum Center in Charlotte, NC

TV: ESPN

The SMU Mustangs (19-12) are headed to Spectrum Center on Wednesday where they will go up against the Louisville Cardinals (22-9) in the ACC Tournament.

The SMU Mustangs took the court against Florida State and ended up losing by a score of 91-78 in their last game. In the matter of personal fouls, the Mustangs ended up walking away with 22 while Florida State accounted for 18 personal fouls. They also converted 16 out of their 34 shots from 3-point land. Florida State walked away from this one shooting 62.5% at the charity stripe by knocking down 15 of 24 attempts. On top of that, Florida State pulled down 26 rebounds (5 offensive, 21 defensive), but didn't notch a block. Florida State recorded 19 dimes and had 10 steals in the game. When it comes to the defense, SMU allowed the other team to shoot 51.7% from the field on 30 out of 58 shooting. They also distributed 11 assists in this game while forcing 11 turnovers and getting 7 steals. When discussing rebounding, they earned 32 with 14 of them being of the offensive variety. When they shot from the free throw line, the Mustangs knocked down 10 of their 17 attempts for a rate of 58.8%. SMU ended the contest with a 42.4% FG percentage (28 out of 66) and converted 12 of 31 3-pointers.

Kevin Miller is one player who was important in this game. He went 55.0% from the field and recorded 4 assists. He was on the court for 39 mins and also grabbed 3 rebounds. He accounted for 32 points on 11 out of 20 shooting.

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SMU comes into this game with a win-loss record of 19-12 for the season. They have an average of 85.0 points per contest (20th in Division 1) while hitting 49.3% from the field. The Mustangs are connecting on 37.8% on 3-pointers (259 of 685) and 74.2% from the charity stripe. As a team, SMU is pulling down 37.6 boards per contest and is sitting with 529 assists this year, which ranks 41st in college in terms of passing the rock. They lose possession by turning the ball over 11.4 times per game and as a team they are committing 17.2 fouls on a nightly basis.

Defensively, the Mustangs are forcing their opponents into 12.3 turnovers per game while drawing 17.5 fouls. They give up 34.4% on 3-point attempts and they are ranked 306th in college in opponents points per game (78.4). The Mustangs defensively are giving up a shooting percentage of 43.5% (835 of 1,919) and they concede 34.3 rebounds per game as a team. They are currently ranked 339th in college in giving up assists with 512 conceded for the season.

When they last played, the Louisville Cardinals walked away with a victory by a final of 92-89 against Miami. The Cardinals snagged 14 defensive rebounds and 5 offensive boards totaling 19 in the game. They turned the ball over 6 times, while recording 4 steals for the contest. Miami had 18 personal fouls in the matchup which took the Cardinals to the charity stripe for 21 tries. They were able to knock down 14 of the free throw tries for a percentage of 66.7%. Concerning 3-point attempts, Louisville converted 12 out of their 24 attempts (50.0%). At the conclusion of this game, the Cardinals walked away from this one shooting 32 for 53 from the floor which had them sitting at 60.4%. The Cardinals permitted Miami to convert 31 out of 55 attempts from the floor which gave them a rate of 56.4% in the matchup. They finished shooting 42.1% from distance via 8 out of 19 and finished the game at 19 of 23 at the free throw line (82.6%). When discussing how they attacked the glass, Louisville allowed Miami to get 25 in total (8 offensive).

Ryan Conwell ended up being a major contributor for the Cardinals for the matchup. He converted 7 out of 14 in this game for a field goal percentage of 50.0%, and had 2 rebounds. He racked up 24 points in his 37 mins on the court and accounted for 2 dimes in this matchup.

Louisville has a record of 22-9 on the year. The Cardinals commit 18.6 fouls per game and they hit 77.1% from the charity stripe. They are assisting teammates 17.4 times per contest (21st in college) and they cough up possession 11.6 times per game. Louisville has 2,662 points so far this season (85.9 per contest) and they grab 38.7 boards per contest. On the offensive side of the ball, the Cardinals are shooting 47.2% from the floor, which ranks 63rd in the country.

The Louisville defense gives up 32.6% from downtown (237 of 728) and opponents are making 71.6% of their free throw attempts. They allow 12.3 dimes and 33.1 total boards per game, which is 91st and 99th in those categories. The Cardinals are ranked 139th in college hoops in PPG surrendered with 72.5. They are able to force 11.9 turnovers on a nightly basis and have let teams shoot 42.2% from the floor (68th in college hoops).

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Louisville

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