Troy Trojans vs South Alabama Jaguars Prediction, 2/21/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Troy Trojans vs South Alabama Jaguars

Date: Saturday, February 21, 2026

Location: Mitchell Center in Mobile, AL

TV: ESPN+

Mitchell Center is the site where the South Alabama Jaguars (19-8) will attempt to beat the Troy Trojans (18-10) on Saturday.

The Troy Trojans played UL Monroe and notched a win by a score of 77-76 in their last contest. When discussing personal fouls, the Trojans walked away with 22 and UL Monroe accumulated 20 personal fouls. They made 5 of 25 tries from distance. UL Monroe ended up shooting 73.9% when shooting free throws by knocking down 17 of their 23 tries. Moreover, UL Monroe snagged 30 rebounds (8 offensive, 22 defensive), but wasn't able to record a block. UL Monroe earned 13 assists and had 6 steals for this contest. With respect to defending, Troy allowed the other team to go 40.9% from the field on 27 out of 66 shooting. They also recorded 13 assists for this game while forcing the other team into 4 turnovers and earning 3 steals. In terms of grabbing rebounds, they compiled 38 with 9 of them being of the offensive variety. At the free throw line, the Trojans buried 17 of 26 attempts for a rate of 65.4%. Troy walked away from the game with a 44.8% field goal percentage (26 out of 58) and knocked down 8 out of their 29 3-point attempts.

Kerrington Kiel is someone who was a major contributor for the contest. He ended up going 71.4% from the floor and totaled 3 dimes. He played 19 minutes played and also snagged 5 rebounds. He scored 15 points on 5 out of 7 shooting.

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Troy will play this game with a win-loss record of 18-10 for the campaign. They have an average of 81.5 points per game (67th in the country) while connecting on 44.9% from the floor. The Trojans are connecting on 34.3% on shots from beyond the arc (272 of 793) and 72.8% from the charity stripe. As a team, Troy is snagging 38.5 boards per game and is sitting with 452 dimes this season, which ranks 38th in the nation in terms of passing the rock. They cough up possession 11.9 times per game and as a group they commit 17.0 fouls every game.

Defensively, the Trojans are forcing 13.2 turnovers per contest and they draw 16.8 personal fouls. They are ranked 255th in D-1 in allowing assists to the opposition with 376 conceded for the year. The Trojans are allowing and opponent field goal percentage of 43.7% (749 of 1,715) and they surrender 35.8 rebounds per contest as a unit. They are relinquishing 32.5% from 3-point land and they rank 213th in college hoops in opponents PPG (74.7).

When they last stepped on the court, the South Alabama Jaguars walked away from this one with a loss by a score of 84-80 against Marshall. In regard to how they cleaned up the glass, South Alabama permitted Marshall to snag 27 in total (9 on the offensive side). They finished 39.1% from behind the 3-point line by connecting on 18 of 46 and finished the contest at 6 of 9 from the charity stripe (66.7%). The Jaguars allowed Marshall to bury 30 out of 63 tries from the floor which had them at 47.6% in this game. When all was said and done, the Jaguars shot 33 for 62 from the field which had them shooting 53.2%. Pertaining to shots from distance, South Alabama buried 5 of their 17 tries (29.4%). They were able to convert 9 of the free throw attempts for a percentage of 69.2%. Marshall committed 16 fouls for the contest which took the Jaguars to the charity stripe for a total of 13 shots. They turned it over 10 times, while recording 6 steals for the matchup. The Jaguars earned 24 defensive boards and 11 offensive rebounds totaling 35 in this contest.

Chaze Harris ended up being a factor for the Jaguars in the game. He had 28 points in his 36 minutes on the hardwood and tallied 8 dimes for this game. He converted 11 of 20 in this matchup for a rate of 55.0%, and earned 5 rebounds.

South Alabama has a mark of 19-8 for the season. The Jaguars commit 12.1 personal fouls per contest while shooting 66.2% from the charity stripe. Their rate of assisting teammates is at 11.6 times per contest (331st in D-1) and they turn it over 8.7 times per contest. South Alabama has accounted for 2,011 pts for the year (74.5 per game) and they pull in 35.9 rebounds per contest. On the offensive side of the court, the Jaguars are shooting 46.5% from the field, which ranks them 110th in Division 1.

The South Alabama defense gives up 32.0% on 3-pointers (344 of 1074) and their opponents are converting on 72.1% of their free throw shots. They concede 16.8 dimes and 37.1 rebounds on a nightly basis, which is ranked 349th and 322nd in the nation. The Jaguars are ranked 71st in college hoops in points allowed per contest with 69.4. They are able to force 12.8 turnovers on a nightly basis and have let teams shoot 38.5% from the field (6th in D-1).

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Troy

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