Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, 7/7/2021 NHL Pick, Tips and Odds
Game: Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Date: Wednesday, July 7, 2021
Location: Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL
Odds/Point Spread: Canadiens (-112) Lightning (-102)
Carey Price and the Montreal Canadiens (24-21-11) are headed to Amalie Arena on Wednesday where they'll take on the Tampa Bay Lightning (36-17-3) in Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Finals. Tampa leads 3-1. The Lightning open this game at -102 while the Canadiens are coming in at -112. The O/U is set at 5.
The Canadiens were on the winning side of the scoreboard with a 3-2 win over the Lightning in Game 4. The Canadiens had an average offensive output in this win. In the game, they scored on 3 of the 21 shots they tried. They also had 1 power play try but weren't able to score. Montreal compiled 12 penalty minutes in this outing. The Corsi for the Canadiens came in at 35 and the Corsi against when this game finished was 51 meaning they had a Corsi rate of 40.7%. Their Fenwick came in at 21 and the Fenwick against finished at 36, meaning they had a Fenwick rate of 36.8%. They garnered 21 face-off wins when at even strength and lost on 15 opportunities to win the face-off. The offensive zone starts for them were at 39.0% and they had a PDO of 110.4 for this game.
The Canadiens have had 1,579 shots taken against them and are the owners of a save percentage of .896. At even strength, the Canadiens let the opposition score 128 goals while scoring 129 of their own. Montreal Canadiens opponents have 172 power play opportunities (8th in professional hockey) and have a total of 37 goals in those attempts. For the year, they have scored 59 points and their points % is .527. Montreal has attempted 1,746 shots and is the owner of a shot percentage of 9.1%. When it comes to scoring goals, the Montreal Canadiens have tallied 158 goals (17th in the league) this year and have surrendered 165. Montreal has accounted for 151 power play opportunities and they have scored 29 goals out of those tries, giving them a percentage of 19.21%.
Patrolling the crease for the game will be Carey Price. In his career, Price has accounted for 399 quality starts and his percentage for quality starts is .574. His save percentage is at .917 for his 41,707 minutes guarding the cage. Price has seen 20,911 shot attempts against him and has recorded 19,174 total saves. Opponents have notched 1,737 goals against Price in his pro hockey career and his goals against average per contest is 2.50. He has amassed a record of Career and he was named the starter in 695 games. Price has been involved in 707 games over the course of his hockey career.
In their Game 4 loss, Tampa Bay had a 59.3% Corsi rating. These Corsi stats speak to the kind of game that Tampa Bay had and the stats tell us that they didn't play well overall. They had a Fenwick percentage of 63.2% with a Fenwick of 36 and the Canadiens earning a 21 Fenwick at even strength. Their PDO was 90 and they earned an oZS percentage of 61.0%. The Lightning tallied 2 goals out of the 34 shots on goal they tried. They had 5 power play chances in this matchup but weren't able to put one in the back of the net.
The Lightning have accumulated 140 goals at even strength and 40 goals (4th in the NHL) while on the power play. Tampa Bay has taken 1,692 shots (9th in professional hockey) and has a shot percentage of 10.64%, while allowing the other team 1,583 shots. So far this season, the Tampa Bay Lightning have tallied 180 goals, 75 points, as well as a points percentage of .670. They have earned 180 chances on the power play and they have a power play rate of 22.22%. They have a penalty kill percentage of 84.15% on their opponents 183 tries on the power play, and their save percentage currently sits at 90.8%. They have allowed 145 goals to be scored by way of 116 goals at even strength and 29 goals while they had less men on the ice.
On the other side of the ice you are expected to see Andrei Vasilevskiy defending the net. He has gathered 8,435 saves out of the 9,171 shots tried, which gives him a rate of .920. Vasilevskiy is the owner of a career mark of Career and has been in net for 302 games. He has started in 292 games and has played 17,629 mins. Vasilevskiy's quality start percentage is 56.2% and he has 164 quality starting assignments in his career. His opponents are averaging 2.51 goals/game and he has given up 736 goals in total.
Who will win tonight's NHL game against the spread?
Tony's Pick: Take Montreal (-112)
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