Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, 12/28/2025 NHL Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning

Date: Sunday, December 28, 2025

Location: Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL

TV: WXPX-TV

Odds/Point Spread: Canadiens (-144) Lightning (+120)

The Tampa Bay Lightning (20-13-3) welcome the Montreal Canadiens (20-12-5) at Amalie Arena on Sunday. The moneyline on this contest has Montreal at -144 while Tampa Bay is priced at +120. The betting total is set at 6.

The Montreal Canadiens were on the winning side of the scoreboard with a 6-2 victory against the Bruins in their previous outing. Montreal garnered 32 mins in the box for this game. Furthermore, they had 7 chances with extra men on the ice and were able to net 2 goals. The Canadiens had a good offensive performance in the victory. For the matchup, they netted 6 of the 29 shots they put on net.

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At even strength, the Canadiens have conceded 94 goals while notching 94 on the offensive side of the ice. Montreal Canadiens opponents have earned 121 power play tries (6th in hockey) and have come away with 27 goals in those chances. In the matter of their scoring capabilities, the Montreal Canadiens have accounted for 121 goals (5th in the league) over the course of the season and have given up 121. Montreal has taken 940 shots and has a shot percentage of 12.9%. For the year, they have recorded 45 points and their points percentage sits at .608. The Canadiens so far have had 1,011 shots tried against them and hold a save percentage of .880. Montreal has 104 power play opportunities and they have added 27 goals during those chances, garnering them a percentage of 25.96%.

The player in the crease for this game is Jakub Dobes. Opponents have been able to score 95 goals against Dobes in his pro career and his goals against average is 2.79. Dobes has been in goal for 36 contests during his professional hockey career. His save percentage is .901 during his 895 mins between the pipes. He has amassed a win-loss record of 19-9-6 and was named the starter in 34 games. In his career, Dobes has 20 quality starts and his quality starts rate is .588. Dobes has had 957 shots taken against him and has recorded 862 total saves.

In their last game, Tampa Bay opposed the Blues in a game where the Lightning took home the victory by a score of 4-1. The Lightning converted 4 goals out of the 17 shots on goal they took. They had 4 power play attempts in this one and notched 2 out of those tries.

On the campaign, the Tampa Bay Lightning have notched a total of 117 goals, 43 points, and a points percentage of .597. They have granted a total of 94 goals to be scored by of a combination of 76 goals at even strength and 18 goals while they had less men on the ice. The Lightning have scored 96 goals at even strength and 21 goals (15th in the league) while having a power play advantage. They have earned 116 opportunities on the power play and they have accumulated a power play rate of 18.10%. Tampa Bay has tried 997 shots (22nd in hockey) and has a shooting percentage of 11.74%, while allowing their opponents 958 shots. They have recorded a penalty kill rate of 84.35% on their opponents 115 power play opportunities, and their save percentage comes in at 90.2%.

For the opposition you are likely to see Jonas Johansson defending the net. He is sitting with 2,273 stops out of 2,552 shots tried, which gives him a rate of .891. Johansson has amassed a lifetime mark of 39-32-13 and has played in 95 games. He got the starting nod in 84 games and has accumulated 4,275 minutes. Johansson's quality start percentage is 45.2% and he has earned 38 quality starts in his career. Teams are averaging 3.32 goals per contest and he has relinquished 279 goals overall.

Who will win tonight's NHL game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy's Pick: Take Tampa Bay (+120)

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