Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, 10/9/2025 NHL Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning

Date: Thursday, October 9, 2025

Location: Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL

TV: WXPX-TV

Odds/Point Spread: Senators (+125) Lightning (-150)

Amalie Arena is the site where the Tampa Bay Lightning (47-27-8 last year) will take on the Ottawa Senators (45-30-7 last season) on Thursday. The moneyline on this game has Ottawa at +125 while Tampa Bay is sitting at -150. The over/under has been set at 6.

The Ottawa Senators will need a bounce back game after taking a 4-2 defeat to the Maple Leafs their last time out. The Senators had an offensive game that was below their expectations in this loss. For the game, they scored on 2 out of the 23 shots they launched. In addition, they had 2 power play opportunities but weren't able to net one. Ottawa tallied 2 minutes in the box in this outing.

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When playing at even strength, the Senators surrendered 181 goals while scoring 178. Ottawa Senators opponents had 229 power play opportunities (14th in the league) and came away with 51 goals in those attempts. When talking about their scoring capabilities, the Ottawa Senators notched 242 goals (18th in pro hockey) in the prior season and conceded 232. Ottawa attempted 2,403 shots and had a shooting percentage of 10.1%. For the previous campaign, the had a total of 97 points and their points percentage was .591. The Senators had 2,346 shots tried against them and had a save percentage of .901. Ottawa wrapped up the season with 269 power play chances and tallied 64 goals out of those tries, garnering them a rate of 23.79%.

The player between the pipes for this game is Linus Ullmark. From the beginning of his pro career to now, Ullmark has recorded 179 quality starts and his quality starts rate is .637. His save percentage currently sits at .917 in his 14,391 minutes in the crease. Ullmark has seen 8,560 shot attempts taken against him and has accrued 7,850 total saves. The opposition has scored 710 goals against Ullmark in his pro hockey career and his goals against average per contest is 2.96. He has compiled an overall record of 163-87-26 and he has gotten the start in 281 games. Ullmark has been involved in 291 contests during his NHL career.

In their last game, Tampa Bay opposed the Panthers in a matchup where the Lightning went home in defeat by a final of 6-3. They had 3 power play attempts in this matchup and recorded 1 out of those opportunities. The Lightning had 3 goals of the 29 shots on goal they attempted.

Tampa Bay has tried 2,341 shots (12th in pro hockey) and accumulated a shooting percentage of 12.47%, while allowing their opponent 2,311 shots. They accumulated a penalty kill rate of 81.55% on their opponent's 206 power play tries, and their save percentage was 90.7%. They had a tally of 232 power play chances and they have accumulated a power play percentage of 25.86%. The Lightning finished with 232 goals at even strength and 60 goals (5th in the NHL) while on the power play. They granted a total of 216 goals to be scored by way of 178 goals at even strength and 38 goals while they had less men on the ice. Last year, the Tampa Bay Lightning earned a total of 292 goals, 102 points, and a points percentage of .622.

Across the ice you are going to see Andrei Vasilevskiy in the crease. Vasilevskiy has accumulated a career mark of 331-163-35 and has played in 540 games. Vasilevskiy's percentage of quality starts is 57.7% and he has earned 306 quality starting assignments in his pro career. He has accounted for 14,772 saves out of 16,107 shots attempted, which gives him a rate of .917. Teams are averaging 2.84 goals per game and he has surrendered 1,335 goals in total. He has been a starter 530 games and has played 28,204 mins.

Who will win tonight's NHL game against the spread or moneyline?

Parlays Pundit's Pick: Take Tampa Bay (-150) and under 6 goals

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