Pittsburgh Penguins vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, 12/4/2025 NHL Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Pittsburgh Penguins vs Tampa Bay Lightning

Date: Thursday, December 4, 2025

Location: Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL

TV: WXPX-TV

Odds/Point Spread: Penguins (+150) Lightning (-182)

Amalie Arena is the site where the Tampa Bay Lightning (16-8-2) will play the Pittsburgh Penguins (13-7-5) on Thursday. The moneyline on this matchup has the Penguins at +150 while the Lightning are sitting at -182. The over/under is set at 6.5.

The Pittsburgh Penguins will head into their next game feeling good after earning a 5-1 victory over the Flyers in their previous outing. The Penguins had a solid offensive output in this victory. For the game, they converted 5 out of the 27 shots they launched. Furthermore, they had 4 power play attempts and were able to net 3 goals. Pittsburgh recorded 14 mins in the box in this game.

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Pittsburgh Penguins opponents have 73 power play tries (25th in the NHL) and have notched 11 goals in those chances. The Penguins so far have had 708 shots tried against them and have a save percentage of .904. Pittsburgh has attempted 676 shots and has a shot percentage of 11.7%. When at even strength, the Penguins have conceded 57 goals while earning 59 on the offensive side of the ice. Pittsburgh skates onto the rink with 60 power play chances and they have notched 20 goals out of those advantages, garnering them a rate of 33.33%. For the season, they sit with 31 points and their points percentage is .620. In reference to scoring goals, the Pittsburgh Penguins have accounted for 79 goals (17th in the league) so far this year and have surrendered 68.

The man protecting the net in this game is Tristan Jarry. Jarry has participated in 304 contests during his NHL career. He has earned a record of 160-99-31 and he was named the starter in 291 games. Opponents have notched 782 goals against Jarry in his pro career and his average for goals against per game is 2.69. Jarry has seen 8,627 shot attempts taken against him and has garnered 7,845 saves. He has a save percentage of .909 during his 15,555 minutes between the pipes. During his career on the ice, Jarry has recorded 173 quality starts and his percentage for quality starts is .595.

Their last time out, Tampa Bay squared up with the Islanders in a game where the Lightning ended up taking the loss by a score of 2-1. They had 3 attempts on the power play in this matchup but weren't able to put one in the back of the net. The Lightning recorded 1 goal of the 30 shots on goal they tried.

Tampa Bay has taken 693 shots (23rd in the league) and has accumulated a shot percentage of 12.27%, while allowing the opposition 711 shots. They have a penalty kill rate of 89.16% on their oppositions 83 power play opportunities, and their save percentage comes in at 90.6%. They have earned 80 power play opportunities and they have a power play percentage of 16.25%. The Lightning have 72 goals at even strength and 13 goals (20th in the league) while having a power play advantage. They have permitted 67 goals to be scored by of a combination of 58 goals at even strength and 9 goals while they had less men on the ice. Over the course of the season, the Tampa Bay Lightning have notched a total of 85 goals, 34 points, in addition to a points percentage of .654.

Across the rink you will find Andrei Vasilevskiy in the crease. Vasilevskiy has accrued a lifetime record of 342-169-37 and has participated in 559 contests. Vasilevskiy's quality start percentage sits at 58.3% and he has qualified for 320 quality starting assignments in his NHL career. He has recorded 15,237 saves out of the 16,615 shots taken against him, which gives him a save % of .917. Teams are averaging 2.51 goals per game and he has yielded 1,378 goals altogether. He has made the start in 549 games and his ice time sits at 28,667 mins.

Who will win tonight's NHL game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh's Pick: Take Pittsburgh (+150)

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