Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators Prediction, 5/1/2025 NHL Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators

Date: Thursday, May 1, 2025

Location: Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON

TV: TBS

Odds/Point Spread: Maple Leafs (-122) Senators (+102)

Canadian Tire Centre is the location where the Ottawa Senators (45-30-7) will take on the Toronto Maple Leafs (52-26-4) on Thursday in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference first round. Toronto has a 3 - 2 series lead. The moneyline on this contest has the Maple Leafs at -122 and the Senators are at +102. The over/under is 6.

The Toronto Maple Leafs were on the losing side of the ice with a 4-0 defeat to the Senators in Game 5. Toronto compiled 6 penalty minutes in this contest. They also had 3 chances with the advantage but weren't able to convert one of them into a goal. The Maple Leafs could have played much better offensively in this loss. In the game, they weren't able to convert any of the 29 shots they put on net.

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Toronto Maple Leafs opponents have 235 power play opportunities (13th in professional hockey) and have tallied 52 goals in those chances. The Maple Leafs have seen 2,405 shots taken against them and hold a save percentage of .905. Toronto has taken 2,297 shots and holds a shooting percentage of 11.6%. At even strength, the Maple Leafs have allowed 177 goals while getting 213 on offense. Toronto comes into tonight with 218 power play chances and they have tallied 54 goals out of those tries, garnering them a rate of 24.77%. For the current season, they have tallied 108 points and their points percentage is sitting at .659. In relation to their scoring, the Toronto Maple Leafs have racked up 267 goals (7th in hockey) on the year and have allowed 229.

The man protecting the goal in this game is Anthony Stolarz. Opponents have been able to score 322 goals versus Stolarz in his professional career and his average for goals against per game is 3.45. Stolarz has been in goal for 142 games throughout his professional hockey career. His save percentage is at .917 during his 5,601 mins between the pipes. He has a mark of 64-39-12 and got the start in 116 games. Over the course of his pro career, Stolarz has compiled 72 quality starts and his quality starts rate sits at .621. Stolarz has seen 3,892 shot attempts taken against him and has accrued 3,570 saves.

In Game 5, they had 2 power play chances in this one but weren't able to score a goal. The Maple Leafs recorded 3 goals of the 34 shots on goal they pursued.

Ottawa has put up 2,403 shots (8th in professional hockey) and has a shot percentage of 10.07%, while allowing their opponents 2,346 shots. They have a penalty kill rate of 77.73% on the other teams 229 power play opportunities, and their save percentage comes in at 90.1%. They have a total of 269 power play chances and they have earned a power play rate of 23.79%. The Senators have earned 178 goals at even strength and 64 goals (1st in the NHL) while on the power play. They have granted a total of 232 goals to be scored by of a combination of 181 goals at even strength and 51 goals while they were shorthanded. So far this season, the Ottawa Senators have notched a total of 242 goals, 97 points, as well as a points percentage of .591.

Across the rink you are likely to see Linus Ullmark in net. He has accounted for 7,850 stops out of 8,560 shots attempted against him, which gives him a save % of .917. Ullmark has amassed a career record of 163-87-26 and has played in 291 games. He got the starting nod in 281 games and has played for a total of 14,391 minutes. Ullmark's quality start percentage comes in at 63.7% and he has earned 179 quality starting assignments in his hockey career. His opposition is averaging 2.96 goals/game and he has allowed 710 goals altogether.

Who will win tonight's NHL game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony's Pick: Take Toronto (-122)

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