Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, 3/12/2026 NHL Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning

Date: Thursday, March 12, 2026

Location: Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL

TV: WXPX-TV

The Detroit Red Wings (36-22-7) are traveling to Amalie Arena on Thursday where they will take on the Tampa Bay Lightning (39-20-4).

The Detroit Red Wings will need a bounce back game after taking a 4-3 defeat to the Panthers in their previous outing. Detroit amassed 6 penalty minutes in this matchup. Moreover, they had 2 chances with the advantage but weren't able to convert one of them into a goal. The Red Wings had an average offensive output in the loss. In the game, they converted 3 of the 28 shots they put on goal.

At even strength, the Red Wings have allowed the opponent to score 155 goals while getting 145 on the offensive side of the ice. Detroit Red Wings opponents have earned 171 power play opportunities (27th in the league) and have scored 36 goals in those attempts. In relation to their goal scoring prowess, the Detroit Red Wings have accumulated 190 goals (19th in hockey) for the year and have given up 191. Detroit has attempted 1,837 shots and has a shot percentage of 10.3%. For the season, they have scored 79 points and their points percentage is .608. The Red Wings thus far have had 1,807 shots tried against them and hold a save percentage of .894. Detroit comes into the game with 202 power play chances and they have tallied 45 goals out of those attempts, giving them a rate of 22.28%.

The man in goal for this game is John Gibson. Opponents have been able to score 1,489 goals against Gibson in his pro hockey career and his goals against average per game is 2.78. Gibson has been in goal for 548 games over the course of his NHL career. His save percentage is at .910 during his 26,918 minutes between the pipes. He has an overall mark of 228-231-65 and he has gotten the start in 536 games. Over the course of his time in hockey, Gibson has accumulated 292 quality starts and his percentage for quality starts is .545. Gibson has had 16,507 shots taken against him and he has 15,018 total saves.

When they were on the ice last, Tampa Bay faced off against the Blue Jackets in a matchup where the Lightning took the loss by a tally of 5-2. They had 3 attempts on the power play in this game but didn't score a goal. The Lightning notched 2 goals out of the 18 shots on goal they pursued.

This season, the Tampa Bay Lightning have earned a total of 221 goals, 82 points, and a points percentage of .651. They have granted a total of 175 goals to be scored by of a combination of 137 goals at even strength and 38 goals while they had less men on the ice. The Lightning have earned 178 goals at even strength and 43 goals (12th in the NHL) while having more men on the ice. They have a tally of 197 power play chances and they have earned a power play rate of 21.83%. Tampa Bay has taken 1,781 shots (19th in the NHL) and has accumulated a shot percentage of 12.41%, while allowing the other team 1,705 shots. They have a penalty kill percentage of 81.37% on their opponents 204 power play chances, and their save percentage is 89.7%.

On the other side of the ice you are expected to see Andrei Vasilevskiy in net. His opponents are averaging 2.50 goals/game and he has relinquished 1,433 goals altogether. Vasilevskiy's quality start percentage sits at 58.5% and he has 335 quality starting assignments in his career. He has started in 573 games and has played 28,726 mins. Vasilevskiy has compiled a lifetime record of 360-174-38 and has participated in 583 games. He has compiled 15,790 stops out of 17,223 shots taken against him, which gives him a save percentage of .917.

Who will win tonight's NHL game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh's Pick: Take Tampa Bay

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