Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, 4/29/2026 NHL Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning

Date: Wednesday, April 29, 2026

Location: Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, FL

TV: ESPN2

Odds/Point Spread: Canadiens (+145) Lightning (-175)

The Montreal Canadiens (48-24-10) are traveling to Benchmark International Arena on Wednesday where they will play the Tampa Bay Lightning (50-26-6) in Game 5 of their 1st round series. The series is tied 2-2. The line on this contest has the Canadiens at +145 and the Lightning are at -175. The over/under comes in at 5.5.

The Montreal Canadiens will look to improve after their 3-2 defeat to the Lightning in Game 4. Montreal garnered 18 penalty mins in this outing. They also had 6 attempts on the power play and were able to score 1 goal. The Canadiens offense left a lot to be desired in the loss. For the game, they converted 2 of the 18 shots they looked to score on.

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Montreal Canadiens opponents have earned 248 power play tries (8th in professional hockey) and have scored 54 goals in those attempts. The Canadiens so far have had 2,283 shots taken against them and have earned a save percentage of .890. Montreal has tried 2,156 shots and has a shot percentage of 12.9%. While at even strength, the Canadiens let the opposition score 197 goals while scoring 223 when they are on offense. Montreal is sitting with 242 power play opportunities and they have notched 56 goals out of those tries, giving them a rate of 23.14%. For the season, they have racked up 106 points and their points percentage is sitting at .646. Regarding scoring goals, the Montreal Canadiens have accumulated 279 goals (7th in the NHL) on the season and have given up 251.

The player between the pipes for this game is Jakub Dobes. The opposition has scored 157 goals against Dobes in his pro career and his goals against average per contest is 2.75. Dobes has played in 59 matchups during his pro hockey career. He has a save percentage of .904 for his 953 minutes in the crease. He has earned an overall mark of 36-14-7 and he was named the starter in 57 games. For his professional hockey career, Dobes has tallied 35 quality starts and his rate for quality starts is .614. Dobes has had 1,627 shot attempts taken against him and has accrued 1,470 total saves.

Tampa Bay played really well on both sides of the ice in Game 4. They had 7 opportunities on the power play in this contest and recorded 1 out of those opportunities. The Lightning scored 3 goals of the 20 shots on goal they were seeking.

During this campaign, the Tampa Bay Lightning have accounted for 286 goals, 106 points, and a points percentage of .646. They have allowed 229 goals to be scored by way of 184 goals at even strength and 45 goals while they were shorthanded. The Lightning have accumulated 235 goals at even strength and 51 goals (15th in pro hockey) while on the power play. They have a total of 246 power play opportunities and they have a power play rate of 20.73%. Tampa Bay has tried 2,305 shots (14th in the league) and has accumulated a shot percentage of 12.41%, while allowing their opponents 2,188 shots. They have a penalty kill rate of 82.56% on their oppositions 258 power play chances, and their save percentage comes in at 89.5%.

Across the ice you are likely to see Andrei Vasilevskiy defending the net. He has gathered 16,122 saves out of 17,589 shots attempted against him, giving him a save % of .917. Vasilevskiy has amassed a lifetime record of 370-178-39 and has participated in 598 contests. He has been a starter 588 games and has played 28,763 minutes. Vasilevskiy's quality start percentage comes out to 59.2% and he has accumulated 348 quality starting assignments in his pro hockey career. His opposition is averaging 2.49 goals per contest and he has yielded 1,467 goals overall.

Who will win tonight's NHL game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony's Pick: Take Montreal (+145)

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