Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, 5/3/2026 NHL Picks, Best Bets & Odds
Game: Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Date: Sunday, May 3, 2026
Location: Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, FL
TV: TNT
Odds/Point Spread: Canadiens (+130) Lightning (-155)
The Tampa Bay Lightning (50-26-6) will try to beat the Montreal Canadiens (48-24-10) at Benchmark International Arena on Sunday in Game 7 of their 1st round series. The moneyline on this game has the Canadiens at +130 while the Lightning are sitting at -155. The over/under comes in at 5.5.
The Montreal Canadiens fell 1-0 against the Lightning in Game 6. Montreal accounted for 8 mins in the box for this contest. Additionally, they had 3 attempts on the power play but weren't able to convert one of them into a goal. The Canadiens could have played much better offensively in the defeat. For the game, they took the loss without having netted any of the 30 shots they tried.
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When at even strength, the Canadiens have conceded 197 goals while earning 223 of their own. Montreal Canadiens opponents have 248 power play opportunities (8th in the league) and have come away with 54 goals in those attempts. With respect to their goal scoring prowess, the Montreal Canadiens have racked up 279 goals (7th in hockey) on the season and have surrendered 251. Montreal has taken 2,156 shots and is the owner of a shooting percentage of 12.9%. For the season, they have 106 points and their points percentage sits at .646. The Canadiens so far have had 2,283 shots taken against them and have a save percentage of .890. Montreal comes into tonight with 242 power play opportunities and they have added 56 goals during those chances, earning them a rate of 23.14%.
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The man in goal for this game is Jakub Dobes. In his career, Dobes has tallied 35 quality starts and his percentage for quality starts is .614. His save percentage currently is at .904 during his 953 mins played. Dobes has had 1,627 shots against him and has recorded 1,470 total saves. The opposition has scored 157 goals versus Dobes in his NHL career and his average for goals against per game is 2.75. He has a record of 36-14-7 and he started in 57 games. Dobes has been involved in 59 matchups over the course of his hockey career.
Tampa played exceptionally well defensively in Game 6. The Lightning earned 1 goal out of the 33 shots on goal they pursued. They had 3 opportunities on the power play in this outing but didn't put one in the back of the net.
The Lightning have scored 235 goals at even strength and 51 goals (15th in professional hockey) while having more men on the ice. Tampa Bay has taken 2,305 shots (14th in the NHL) and has earned a shot percentage of 12.41%, while allowing the opposition 2,188 shots. For the year, the Tampa Bay Lightning have tallied 286 goals, 106 points, as well as a points percentage of .646. They have permitted 229 goals to be scored by way of 184 goals at even strength and 45 goals while they had less men on the ice. They have earned 246 power play opportunities and they have accumulated a power play percentage of 20.73%. They have earned a penalty kill percentage of 82.56% on their opponents 258 tries on the power play, and their save percentage comes in at 89.5%.
Across the rink you will find Andrei Vasilevskiy defending the goal. Vasilevskiy is the owner of a lifetime record of 370-178-39 and has played in 598 games. Vasilevskiy's quality start rate sits at 59.2% and he has made 348 quality starting assignments in his NHL career. He has tallied 16,122 saves out of 17,589 shots taken against him, giving him a percentage of .917. His opposition is averaging 2.49 goals/game and he has surrendered 1,467 goals altogether. He has made the start in 588 contests and has racked up 28,763 minutes.
Who will win tonight's NHL game against the spread or moneyline?
Tony's Pick: Take Montreal (+130)
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Additional Resources:
Tampa Bay Lightning - Twitter
Montreal Canadiens - Twitter