Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction, 9/29/2026 NHL Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs

Date: Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Location: Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON

TV: ESPN+

Odds/Point Spread: Canadiens (-112) Maple Leafs (-108)

The Montreal Canadiens (48-24-10 last season) are hitting the road to Scotiabank Arena on Tuesday where they will play the Toronto Maple Leafs (32-36-14 last year). The line on this matchup has the Canadiens at -112 while the Maple Leafs open at -108. The total comes in at 6.

The Montreal Canadiens were on the wrong end of the scoreboard with a 6-1 defeat against the Hurricanes in their previous outing. Montreal garnered 10 penalty minutes in this contest. The Canadiens had a below average offensive performance in the loss. In addition, they had 5 power play opportunities and were able to net 1 goal. In the outing, they converted 1 out of the 24 shots they looked to score on.

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While at even strength, the Canadiens surrendered 197 goals while notching 223. Montreal Canadiens opponents had 248 power play opportunities (8th in pro hockey) and had a total of 54 goals in those attempts. In terms of scoring goals, the Montreal Canadiens notched 279 goals (7th in pro hockey) in the prior season and allowed 251. Montreal took 2,156 shots and were the owners of a shot percentage of 12.9%. For the prior season, they recorded 106 points and their points percentage was at .646. The Canadiens had 2,283 shots tried against them and had a save percentage of .890. Montreal accounted for 242 power play chances and tallied 56 goals out of those attempts, giving them a percentage of 23.14%.

The player guarding the cage in this matchup is Jakub Dobes. Dobes has taken the ice for 59 matchups throughout his hockey career. He has compiled an overall record of 36-14-7 and he has gotten the start in 57 games. Opponents have racked up 157 goals versus Dobes in his career and his goals against average per contest is 2.75. Dobes has had 1,627 shots against him and has recorded 1,470 total saves. His save percentage is at .904 for his 953 minutes guarding the cage. Over the course of his career, Dobes has 35 quality starts and his quality starts percentage is at .614.

Their last time out, Toronto opposed the Senators in an outing where the Maple Leafs went home in defeat by a final score of 3-1. The Maple Leafs scored 1 goal out of the 20 shots on goal they attempted. They had 2 opportunities on the power play in this matchup but didn't put one in the back of the net.

The Maple Leafs accumulated 210 goals at even strength and 42 goals (25th in the league) while on the power play. Toronto put up 2,159 shots (23rd in hockey) and had a shot percentage of 11.67%, while allowing the other team 2,660 shots. Last season, the Toronto Maple Leafs earned 252 goals, 78 points, in addition to a points percentage of .476. They permitted 295 goals to be scored by way of 252 goals at even strength and 43 goals while they had less men on the ice. They had 197 power play chances and they have a power play percentage of 21.32%. They recorded a penalty kill percentage of 81.22% on their opponent's 229 chances on the power play, and their save percentage came in at 88.9%.

Across the ice you are expected to see Sergei Bobrovsky in net. He has accounted for 21,022 stops out of the 23,044 shots attempted, which gives him a save % of .912. Bobrovsky has accumulated a lifetime mark of 456-266-58 and has participated in 806 games. He got the starting nod in 791 games and has accumulated 40,087 mins. Bobrovsky's quality start percentage comes out to 57.5% and he has qualified for 455 quality starts in his professional career. The opposition is averaging 2.56 goals per game and he has relinquished 2,022 goals overall.

Who will win tonight's NHL game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy's Pick: Take Toronto (-108)

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