New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction, 9/30/2026 NHL Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs

Date: Wednesday, September 30, 2026

Location: Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON

TV: ESPN+

Odds/Point Spread: Islanders (+106) Maple Leafs (-118)

The Toronto Maple Leafs (32-36-14 last season) host the New York Islanders (43-34-5 last year) at Scotiabank Arena on Wednesday. The moneyline on this matchup has New York at +106 while Toronto is at -118. The total is set at 6.5.

The New York Islanders will be looking to get a win in their next outing after their 2-1 defeat against the Hurricanes in their previous game. New York amassed 2 minutes in the box for this matchup. The Islanders could have played much better offensively in the loss. In addition, they had 2 attempts on the power play but weren't able to convert one of them into a goal. In the game, they earned a goal on 1 of the 29 shots they looked to score on.

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New York Islanders opponents had 214 power play opportunities (28th in the NHL) and racked up 41 goals in those attempts. The Islanders had 2,270 shots tried against them and held a save percentage of .896. New York attempted 2,310 shots and were the owners of a shooting percentage of 9.9%. When at even strength, the Islanders let the opposition score 195 goals while notching 189. New York finished with 242 power play opportunities and scored 40 goals out of those advantages, giving them a rate of 16.53%. For the previous season, they racked up 91 points and their points percentage was .555. In the matter of their goal scoring prowess, the New York Islanders accumulated 229 goals (25th in the NHL) in the prior season and conceded 236.

The player protecting the goal in this game is Ilya Sorokin. The opposition has been able to score 778 goals against Sorokin in his NHL career and his goals against rate is 2.58. Sorokin has been involved in 308 contests throughout his hockey career. His save percentage is at .914 during his 13,543 mins between the pipes. He has accumulated an overall record of 154-113-38 and he was named the starter in 302 games. Over the course of his pro career, Sorokin has tallied 193 quality starts and his quality starts rate sits at .639. Sorokin has had 9,091 shots against him and he has 8,313 saves.

Their last time out, Toronto opposed the Senators in a game where the Maple Leafs took the defeat by a score of 3-1. The Maple Leafs earned 1 goal out of the 20 shots on goal they took. They had 2 attempts on the power play in this game but weren't able to put one in the back of the net.

The Maple Leafs finished with 210 goals at even strength and 42 goals (25th in pro hockey) while having more men on the ice. Toronto put up 2,159 shots (23rd in pro hockey) and accumulated a shot percentage of 11.67%, while allowing their opponent 2,660 shots. Last season, the Toronto Maple Leafs accumulated 252 goals, 78 points, and a points percentage of .476. They allowed 295 goals to be scored by way of 252 goals at even strength and 43 goals while they had less men on the ice. They had a tally of 197 chances on the power play and they have accumulated a power play rate of 21.32%. They earned a penalty kill rate of 81.22% on their opposition's 229 power play chances, and their save percentage was at 88.9%.

On the other side of the ice you are expected to see Anthony Stolarz in goal. Stolarz has accumulated a lifetime record of 74-49-15 and has played in 168 games. Stolarz's quality start percentage is 58.9% and he has qualified for 83 quality starts in his pro career. He has tallied 4,202 stops out of the 4,600 shots tried, giving him a rate of .913. Teams are averaging 2.82 goals per game and he has surrendered 398 goals overall. He got the starting nod in 141 games and has been on the ice for 7,584 mins.

Who will win tonight's NHL game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy's Pick: Take Toronto (-118)

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