Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, 10/5/2026 NHL Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning

Date: Monday, October 5, 2026

Location: Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, FL

TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia, WXPX-TV

Odds/Point Spread: Flyers (+160) Lightning (-175)

The Philadelphia Flyers (0-1-2) are en route to Benchmark International Arena on Monday where they will take on the Tampa Bay Lightning (1-1-0). The moneyline on this contest has the Flyers at +160 and the Lightning are priced at -175. The total is 6.

The Philadelphia Flyers will look to clean up some issues after taking a 3-2 loss against the Hurricanes their last time out. Philadelphia compiled 8 penalty minutes in this matchup. In addition, they had 4 opportunities with more players on the ice but didn't convert them into a score. The Flyers had a below average offensive performance in this loss. For the matchup, they were able to notch a goal on 2 of the 18 shots they looked to score on.

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Philadelphia Flyers opponents have recorded 12 power play tries (2nd in the league) and have racked up 4 goals in those chances. The Flyers have seen 122 shots taken against them and have earned a save percentage of .893. Philadelphia has tried 62 shots and holds a shooting percentage of 6.5%. While playing at even strength, the Flyers have allowed the opponent to score 9 goals while earning 4 on the offensive side of the ice. Philadelphia skates onto the rink with 8 power play chances and they have scored no goals out of those tries. For the current campaign, they have recorded 2 points and their points percentage sits at .333. In regard to scoring goals, the Philadelphia Flyers have tallied 4 goals (25th in the National Hockey League) on the year and have surrendered 13.

The player guarding the cage in this matchup is Daniel Vladar. Throughout his time in hockey, Vladar has 85 quality starts and his quality starts percentage is .578. His save percentage is at .897 for his 375 mins on the ice. Vladar has seen 4,129 shot attempts against him and has accrued 3,705 saves. The opposition has scored 424 goals against Vladar in his pro career and his average for goals against per game is 2.88. He has a mark of 78-49-23 and got the start in 147 games. Vladar has participated in 158 contests over the course of his hockey career.

When they took the ice last, Tampa Bay played the Capitals in an outing where the Lightning took home the win by a tally of 3-1. They had 3 power play attempts in this outing but were not able to net one. The Lightning recorded 3 goals out of the 30 shots on goal they pursued.

Tampa Bay has taken 54 shots (19th in pro hockey) and has a shot percentage of 7.41%, while allowing the other team 46 shots. They have accumulated a penalty kill percentage of 75.00% on their opponents 4 power play opportunities, and their save percentage sits at 87.0%. They have earned 10 chances on the power play. The Lightning have accumulated 4 goals at even strength and 0 goals (23rd in pro hockey) while having more men on the ice. They have allowed 6 goals to be scored by of a combination of 5 goals at even strength and 1 goal while they had less men on the ice. On the season, the Tampa Bay Lightning have earned 4 goals, 2 points, and a points percentage of .500.

Across the ice you are going to see Andrei Vasilevskiy protecting the goal. He is sitting with 16,162 stops out of 17,634 shots attempted, which gives him a save percentage of .917. Vasilevskiy has compiled a career record of 371-179-39 and has participated in 600 games. He has started in 590 games and has played 35,227 mins. Vasilevskiy's quality start percentage comes out to 59.2% and he has earned 349 quality starts in his career. His opposition is averaging 2.49 goals per game and he has surrendered 1,472 goals altogether.

Who will win tonight's NHL game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony's Pick: Take Philadelphia (+160)

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