Tampa Bay Lightning vs Buffalo Sabres Prediction, 11/11/2026 NHL Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Buffalo Sabres

Date: Wednesday, November 11, 2026

Location: KeyBank Center in Buffalo, NY

TV: WXPX-TV, MSG Network

Odds/Point Spread: Lightning (-122) Sabres (+107)

The Buffalo Sabres (8-6-3) host the Tampa Bay Lightning (11-4-2) at KeyBank Center on Wednesday. The moneyline on this contest has the Lightning at -122 and the Sabres are opening at +107. The total is set at 6.5.

The Tampa Bay Lightning were on the wrong end of the scoreboard with a 4-3 loss against the Jets in their previous contest . The Lightning had an average offensive performance in this defeat. For the matchup, they earned a goal on 3 of the 21 shots they looked to score on. Additionally, they had 4 chances with the advantage but weren't able to score a goal. Tampa Bay accounted for 10 minutes in the box for this contest.

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While at even strength, the Lightning have conceded 39 goals while getting 51 when they are on offense. Tampa Bay Lightning opponents have amassed 48 power play opportunities (27th in professional hockey) and have tallied 13 goals in those attempts. In regard to their scoring, the Tampa Bay Lightning have notched 63 goals (10th in the league) on the season and have conceded 52. Tampa Bay has attempted 508 shots and has a shooting percentage of 12.4%. For the current season, they have tallied 24 points and their points percentage comes in at .706. The Lightning have seen 420 shots attempted against them and are the owners of a save percentage of .876. Tampa Bay comes into the game with 62 power play chances and they have added 12 goals during those advantages, giving them a percentage of 19.35%.

The player in the crease for this game is Andrei Vasilevskiy. Opponents have tallied 1,504 goals against Vasilevskiy in his career and his goals against average per game is 2.50. Vasilevskiy has participated in 611 contests over the course of his NHL career. He has a save percentage of .916 during his 33 mins guarding the cage. He has accumulated a record of 378-182-40 and he was named the starter in 601 games. During his career on the ice, Vasilevskiy has 353 quality starts and his quality starts percentage is .587. Vasilevskiy has seen 17,907 shot attempts taken against him and has accrued 16,406 total saves.

In their last game, Buffalo opposed the Golden Knights in a matchup where the Sabres ended up taking the loss by a final of 4-1. They had 3 power play attempts in this outing but weren't able to finish one of them with a goal. The Sabres earned 1 goal out of the 29 shots on goal they took.

The Sabres have 42 goals at even strength and 8 goals (28th in professional hockey) while having more men on the ice. Buffalo has taken 483 shots (17th in pro hockey) and has accumulated a shooting percentage of 10.35%, while allowing their opponents 461 shots. During this campaign, the Buffalo Sabres are sitting with 50 goals, 19 points, in addition to a points percentage of .559. They have granted a total of 56 goals to be scored by way of 39 goals at even strength and 17 goals while they were shorthanded. They have a tally of 56 power play chances and they have a power play rate of 14.29%. They have accumulated a penalty kill rate of 71.19% on their oppositions 59 power play tries, and their save percentage is currently 87.9%.

Across the rink you are going to see Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen protecting the net. He is sitting with 5,086 stops out of 5,657 shots tried, which gives him a save percentage of .899. Luukkonen is the owner of a lifetime mark of 98-77-21 and has played in 201 games. He has started in 195 games and has been on the ice for 10,938 minutes. Luukkonen's quality start rate sits at 53.8% and he has qualified for 105 quality starts in his professional career. His opponents are averaging 2.94 goals per contest and he has allowed 573 goals overall.

Who will win tonight's NHL game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy's Pick: Take Buffalo (+107)

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